U.S. prediction markets face public opposition as Reuters/Ipsos poll finds bipartisan resistance

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U.S. prediction markets opposition

Highlights

A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 4,506 U.S. adults found 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans oppose prediction markets for election betting.
Public opposition extends beyond elections, as 65% oppose betting on U.S. military actions and 63% oppose bets on government policy announcements.
Industry leaders Polymarket and Kalshi face broad skepticism and increased regulatory scrutiny despite implementing account restrictions and working with authorities.

Poll findings and regulatory debate

As reported by Reuters/Ipsos, most Americans oppose using prediction markets to bet on U.S. elections and other government actions, underscoring a potential public support gap as policymakers debate regulation of the sector.

The industry, led by companies including Polymarket and Kalshi, allows users to place bets on events ranging from elections and policy moves to sports. That expansion is drawing concern from policymakers who say the platforms could create new channels for insider trading and manipulation.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted online nationwide from September 30 through October 5, finds a bipartisan majority against such activity. Some 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans say they oppose using prediction markets to bet on election results.

Industry growth meets public skepticism

Beyond elections, 65% of Americans oppose prediction market betting on U.S. military actions and 63% oppose bets on government policy announcements or decisions. Only 8% and 9%, respectively, support those forms of wagering, pointing to broad discomfort with betting on core government affairs.

The findings add to scrutiny of a nascent industry that is marketing heavily on social media and television while facing pushback from states and Democratic lawmakers. Critics argue the markets are unethical, socially corrosive and could undermine national security.

Polymarket and Kalshi say they work closely with authorities, refer suspicious accounts and have introduced restrictions to limit misconduct. Even so, a significant share of the public still views these operations as closer to gambling than to financial markets.

The poll surveyed 4,506 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of about two percentage points.

In our earlier report on UK plans for tighter oversight of frontier AI models, we outlined proposals to require developers to report safety incidents and give the UK AI Security Institute pre-release access for testing. We also noted that delayed disclosures around AI agent misuse were strengthening the case for clearer rules on incident reporting and safeguards, as policymakers weigh how to manage fast-evolving risks.

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