Germany faces lower AI economic gains under tighter data access rules, ifo says

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Highlights

Restrictive access to AI training data would reduce Germany's potential annual economic gains from generative AI by 155 billion euros according to ifo calculations.
Generative AI could add 440 billion euros annually to Germany's economy by 2034 if companies and researchers retain sufficient data for model development and deployment.
The study warns that ongoing regulatory uncertainty and stricter data rules risk discouraging investment and weakening Europe's AI sector amid intensifying global competition.

Projected losses from stricter training data access

As reported by Reuters, citing ifo, restrictive access to AI training data would cut Germany's potential annual economic gains from generative AI by 155 billion euros, based on the institute's model calculations. The study says generative AI could add 440 billion euros a year to Germany's economy by 2034 if companies and researchers retain sufficient access to data for model development and deployment.

The estimated loss would come from several channels, including 45 billion euros from slower AI adoption, 75 billion euros from weaker models, 25 billion euros from lower research output and 10 billion euros from reduced AI development in Europe. Oliver Falck, an ifo expert, says Europe cannot aim to build leading AI models while making access to training data unnecessarily difficult at the same time.

Policy debate and wider implications for Europe

The findings land as European policymakers and technology companies continue to grapple with how to limit AI-related risks without slowing innovation. That debate is especially significant for Germany and the broader region as Europe tries to narrow the gap with the U.S. and China in advanced AI development.

The study's authors urge policymakers to keep the EU's commercial text-and-data-mining exemption in place, while adding proportionate transparency rules and a practical opt-out standard. They also say regulatory uncertainty is already discouraging investment in Europe, raising the risk that stricter data rules could weaken the region's AI sector as global competition intensifies.

Our earlier coverage of regulators stepping up scrutiny of banks’ use of advanced AI outlined how U.S. and European supervisors are pressing lenders to strengthen cyber resilience, governance and recovery planning as more autonomous systems are adopted. The article highlighted growing concerns about operational control, third-party dependencies and the cost of building reliable shutdown and “bare metal” recovery capabilities to contain AI-enabled incidents.

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