Latino support for Republicans weakens ahead of U.S. midterms

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Latino support and midterms

Highlights

CBS News/YouGov poll shows 60 per cent of likely Hispanic voters back Democrats for Congress while 39 per cent support Republicans, reversing 2024 trends.
In California's 22nd district, Democrat Randy Villegas targets Republican David Valadao over Medicaid work requirements affecting nearly 70,000 residents, raising risks for GOP in Hispanic-heavy seats.
Republican momentum among Latino voters weakens nationally, as seen in New Jersey’s Passaic County swing to Democrats and Hispanic lawmakers distancing from Trump on immigration.

Polling shift reshapes campaign map

As reported by Financial Times, polling and voter interviews indicate Latino backing for Republicans is slipping as Democrats try to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the Trump administration ahead of this year's congressional elections.

A CBS News/YouGov poll published last week found that 60 per cent of likely Hispanic voters plan to back Democrats for Congress, while 39 per cent intend to support Republicans. Strategists and local voters cited anger over inflation, the war in the Middle East and immigration raids that have spread fear in Hispanic neighbourhoods.

That marks a reversal from 2024, when nearly half of Hispanic voters backed Donald Trump and prompted talk of a lasting political realignment. Analysts now say the bloc remains highly fluid, with consultant Mike Madrid describing Latinos as the only truly swing vote in America and warning that the shift is more a rejection of Republicans than a firm embrace of Democrats.

California contest highlights broader risks

The changing mood is especially visible in California's 22nd congressional district, where Democrat Randy Villegas is challenging Republican incumbent David Valadao in a seat seen as pivotal to Democratic hopes of retaking the House. The district is 73 per cent Hispanic and heavily reliant on immigrant labour across the Central Valley's agricultural economy.

Villegas is attacking Valadao over his support for a spending bill passed last year that delivered tax cuts to wealthy Americans while reducing outlays for food stamps and Medicaid. Democrats say official estimates show nearly 70,000 district residents could lose health insurance when new work requirements take effect, a sensitive issue in an area with one of the country's highest shares of Medicaid recipients.

Valadao has defended his vote by pointing to $200 million in water infrastructure spending for the district and aid for rural hospitals, while also saying work requirements for Medicaid are reasonable. Even so, he has acknowledged that the war in Iran needs to end, that inflation is hurting consumers and that he is unhappy with how Immigration and Customs Enforcement has conducted operations.

Recent elections elsewhere also suggest softer Republican momentum among Latino voters. In New Jersey's Passaic County, which Trump carried narrowly in 2024, voters later backed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill by double digits, while Union City swung sharply toward Democrats.

Some Hispanic Republicans are also creating distance from Trump on immigration. Florida lawmaker María Elvira Salazar said in a recent advertisement that the administration's enforcement push had gone too far and that Hispanics who helped return Trump to the White House in 2024 now feel betrayed.

Our earlier coverage of Democrats’ potential midterm gains explained that winning one or both chambers of Congress would significantly expand their oversight powers, including subpoena authority and the ability to call regulators and executives to testify. We noted that a shift in control could put the Trump administration’s financial deregulation agenda under heavier scrutiny, with investigations likely to focus on Wall Street, crypto and prediction markets, and weakened consumer-protection enforcement.

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