Republicans boost ad spending as tighter polls raise midterm risks

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Republicans boost ad spending

Highlights

Republicans increased advertising spending by $434mn in three weeks, raising Senate outlays 46% and House spending 36% as polling tightens before midterms.
GOP ad spending surged in reliably red states like Kansas from $5mn to $21mn, while Florida Senate race ad buys rose from $7mn to $22.5mn by October 14.
Texas became the most expensive Senate contest with $503mn in advertising, Republican spending up 131% to $232mn as Democrat James Talarico leads by 3 points.

Advertising surge spreads to once-safe races

As reported by Financial Times, Republicans have added $434mn in advertising over the past three weeks across Senate and House of Representatives contests, citing data from analytics firm AdImpact. Senate ad spending is up 46 per cent and House spending has risen 36 per cent, as the party responds to weaker polling ahead of the vote.

The heavier outlays are extending into contests that were not previously viewed as competitive. In Kansas, where Democrats have not won a Senate race since 1932, recent polling shows a statistical tie between Republican incumbent Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton. Since September 22, Republicans have raised ad spending in the state from $5mn to $21mn, while Democrats have increased their own political ad spending there by $20mn.

In Florida, Republicans are also committing more money to protect a Senate seat previously held by secretary of state Marco Rubio. Advertising spending in that race reaches $22.5mn as of October 14, up from $7mn three weeks earlier.

Deteriorating prospects in some contests are also forcing strategic withdrawals. The Republican Senate campaign arm is pulling back from North Carolina and Georgia, while the party has shifted funds away from several House races as it concentrates resources on more winnable battlegrounds.

Fuel costs and affordability shape electoral pressure

Rising prices remain central to the campaign environment, with elevated petrol costs linked in the article to the Iran war weighing on President Donald Trump's approval ratings. Diesel averages about $6.3 a gallon, more than 70 per cent above a year earlier, with rural areas and farming communities facing particular pressure.

Charles Franklin, a professor at Marquette Law School who directs its polling programme, says voters are especially focused on inflation and the cost of living, areas where Trump polls worse than his overall approval rating. Some Republican Senate candidates, including Michigan candidate Mike Rogers and Maine senator Susan Collins, are also distancing themselves from Trump's tariff policies, criticising levies on Canadian goods that affect their border states.

Texas has become the costliest Senate contest of the cycle, attracting more than $503mn in primary and general election advertising. Over the past three weeks, Republican ad spending there has jumped 131 per cent to $232mn, while the latest RealClearPolitics polling gives Democratic candidate James Talarico an advantage of roughly 3 points over Republican Ken Paxton.

Democrats are increasing spending in newly competitive races as well. In Iowa, their Senate candidate has lifted ad spending by 79 per cent in the past three weeks, while political scientists say independents concerned about the economy could remain decisive in the closing stretch of the campaign.

Our earlier coverage on surging oil and gas prices during the U.S.-Iran war explained how the jump in crude, diesel and European gas was boosting cash generation for the biggest international oil companies ahead of earnings. We noted that firms were prioritising capital discipline—using windfalls for debt reduction and shareholder payouts—while holding back on big new spending amid uncertainty, with reinvestment and M&A likely to pick up only if crude prices retreat and stabilise.

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