Tesla stock climbs 1.5% as Musk touts FSD safety gains

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Tesla stock climbs

Highlights

- Tesla stock gained 1.5% amid growing investor confidence in its Full Self-Driving (FSD) developments.

- Technical indicators point to a potential breakout if the $350 resistance is breached, with upside targets at $368 and $390.

- Strong momentum is supported by autonomy progress and resilient demand in key international markets.

The key technical level in focus is the $350 resistance, which has acted as a ceiling for the past two weeks. A sustained break above this level could unlock a new leg higher toward $368 and potentially $390 in the near term. From a moving average perspective, TSLA is now firmly above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near $320, and well clear of its 100-day SMA around $310. These crossovers are seen by technicians as confirmation of a bullish reversal from the April lows near $220.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just below 65, suggesting that while momentum is positive, the stock is not yet overbought. Volume on recent up days has also exceeded the 30-day average, which supports the view that institutions are returning to the name as macro risk diminishes and company-specific drivers gain traction. Notably, the price action is forming a higher low and higher high structure, indicative of a strong bullish trend developing in the medium term.

Tesla stock price dynamics (June 2025 - August 2025). Source: TradingView

Key support levels include $330 (near-term support), $315 (previous breakout point), and the 200-day moving average near $298. If those levels fail, $265 is a major floor that has held multiple times since 2023. Resistance remains at $350, followed by $368 and $390. A decisive breakout above $350 would likely attract momentum buyers and open the path toward a test of $368 in the short term. Sustained bullish volume could extend the rally further to $390, where profit-taking may emerge.

China push and Full Self-Driving optimism

Tesla’s recent upside momentum comes amid renewed optimism about its global strategy, especially in China, and growing confidence in its autonomous driving roadmap. The company’s ongoing China push is under close scrutiny, with analysts viewing it as key to sustaining growth in the face of rising competition from local electric vehicle (EV) players such as BYD and XPeng.

Tesla is benefiting from renewed investor interest in its strategic presence in China. Despite economic headwinds and price wars in the region, Tesla continues to gain share, with strong Model Y demand and stable production volumes from Giga Shanghai. Additionally, wait times for the Model Y have recently stretched to 4–6 weeks, indicating healthy demand amid reduced incentives.

A key bullish catalyst remains Elon Musk’s aggressive timeline for Full Self-Driving (FSD). During recent investor calls, Musk emphasized that FSD Version 14 is significantly safer than human drivers, with Version 15 expected to be "an order of magnitude" more capable. The initial robo-taxi pilot underway in Austin, Texas, is viewed by investors as a potential springboard to broader adoption. If Tesla can deliver even modest progress in its autonomy program, it could justify the current valuation and even push the stock beyond $400 in a momentum-driven environment.

Upside scenario builds as $350 breakout nears

If Tesla manages a confirmed daily close above the $350 level, the next leg higher is likely to target $368, followed by the $390 resistance zone. In this scenario, improving macro conditions, combined with investor enthusiasm for autonomy and a strong China narrative, could help fuel the next stage of the rally.

A more conservative case would see the stock consolidate between $330 and $350 over the coming sessions. This would allow technical indicators such as the RSI to reset while maintaining the bullish structure. In this neutral scenario, a breakout attempt could follow later in September, particularly if macro data continues to support soft-landing expectations.

Tesla has sharply reduced lease rates for the Model 3 and Model Y in the UK and parts of Europe, with some cuts reaching up to 40%. Investors are closely watching this move, as Model 3 leases now start at £252 per month and Model Y at around £377–400, down from significantly higher levels earlier this year.

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