Nasdaq Composite futures rise 166 points amid investors bet on October rate cut

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Sholanke Dele

29.09.2025

Nasdaq Composite futures rise 166 points amid investors bet on October rate cut — Nasdaq bullish recovery gains traction

The Nasdaq Composite Index ended last week softer after three consecutive weeks of advances that had carried the benchmark to a record high at 22,800.

The pullback unfolded through a three-day retreat in heavyweight technology stocks such as Alphabet, Nvidia, and Microsoft. Selling pressure dragged the index to a weekly low of 22,200 before support from the last higher low demand zone stepped in to limit further declines.

- Nasdaq trims losses to 0.5% after inflation data meets expectations.

- Nasdaq futures point higher on Monday as Fed rate cut bets strengthen October outlook.

- Government shutdown risk threatens market stability and Fed's assessment of labor conditions.

By Friday, sentiment had started to recover. U.S. equities closed higher after the August PCE inflation report met forecasts at 0.2%. The Nasdaq gained 0.4% on the session, trimming the week’s loss to just 0.5% at 22,480. The alignment of steady inflation data and resilient consumer demand reassured investors that the Federal Reserve has scope to deliver rate cuts later this year. Market pricing reflects about 40 basis points of easing by year-end, and the probability of an October cut has now reached 90%.

Nasdaq price dynamic (July - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview

Monday, September 29, the Nasdaq futures have opened on a firmer note. The futures price is up 166 points, or 0.67%, extending the rebound from Friday’s session. The premarket performance points to the possibility of the index retesting and potentially breaking through the 22,800 peak before the end of September. The momentum suggests that buyers are reasserting control after last week’s dip, underpinned by expectations that the Fed will ease policy in October.

Investor conviction tested as Nasdaq index recovery targets 22,800 breakout attempt

The policy backdrop is complicated by political developments in Washington. Investors are monitoring the risk of a U.S. government shutdown if lawmakers fail to pass a funding bill by Wednesday. A prolonged closure could disrupt the release of economic data, including Friday’s payrolls report. The absence of timely labor market information would challenge the Fed’s policy assessment and inject additional uncertainty into markets.

From a technical standpoint, near-term support is anchored by the 20 EMA on the four-hour chart, which currently aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing high. This confluence zone at 22,200 offers a key floor for buyers to defend. The response around this level will determine whether the index can sustain its drive higher into record territory.

Overall, the Nasdaq Composite is positioned at a critical juncture. Stronger futures suggest the index could soon test uncharted highs, but resistance at 22,800 and the political risk surrounding government funding could temper enthusiasm. Investors will weigh supportive inflation data against the threat of a shutdown as they gauge whether the latest rebound has the conviction to carry the benchmark into another leg of its upward trajectory.

Strong earnings and Fed easing fuel record close supported by high volume. Trump visa fee risks might weigh on tech stocks despite resilience.

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