Gold price forecast: XAU rebounds toward $4,190 as traders price in December Fed cut

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Gold tests $4,191 resistance

Highlights

- Gold holds above the $4,073 pivot as rate-cut odds rise to 81 percent.

- Fed commentary pulls the dollar lower and supports renewed bullion inflows.

- A breakout above $4,191 could unlock the next leg toward $4,275.

Gold has stabilised above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $4,073 after multiple tests of the $4,000 psychological floor through November. Buyers stepped in aggressively on each dip into the $4,000 to $4,050 pocket, and the latest recovery has carried price back toward the key $4,190 area that aligns with the 0.618 retracement. This remains the first major barrier that bulls must clear to tilt the structure decisively upward.

Gold price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The 20-day EMA near $4,076 has re-emerged as a reliable short-term pivot. Gold has reclaimed this level and is holding above it, signaling a shift in near-term momentum. The wider structure remains constructive, with the 50-day EMA near $3,966 providing backup support and the 100-day and 200-day EMAs near $3,775 and $3,489 anchoring the long-term uptrend. As long as gold remains above the 100-day EMA, deeper downside risk remains contained.

Momentum indicators reflect this stabilisation. RSI has climbed to 58 and is rising without entering overbought territory, suggesting improving strength without exhaustion. The rebound from October’s $3,885 swing low continues to underpin sentiment, reinforcing that buyers remain active during broader risk-on periods in equities.

Technical test emerges at $4,191 as bulls challenge trendline

The next decisive test sits at the 0.618 retracement at $4,191. Above that, the 0.786 retracement near $4,275 forms the upper boundary of a supply zone that has rejected every attempt to break higher since early November. A daily close above $4,275 would confirm that buyers have absorbed overhead pressure and reopen the path toward $4,350 and then the all-time high region at $4,381.

A descending trendline drawn from the October peak adds another important layer. Price is now pressing directly beneath this line, and a breakout would signal a structural shift that could trigger accelerated follow-through. Gold often sees sharp volatility expansion when trendline breaks align with strong macro catalysts, making this level closely watched among institutional desks.

If price fails at the trendline, the first defensive zone remains $4,073. A loss of this area would expose the $4,000 floor, where demand has consistently emerged. Below that, the 50-day EMA at $3,966 becomes the key downside marker. A break of this level would increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward the $3,885 correction low.

Macro backdrop leans supportive as traders await U.S. data

The broader macro landscape continues to lean in gold’s favour. Dovish Fed commentary has pulled the dollar off multi-month highs and lifted expectations for a December rate cut from 40 percent last week to 81 percent. Markets have responded with renewed bullion inflows, viewing easing financial conditions as a tailwind for the metal.

Upcoming releases—including Retail Sales, PPI, Q3 GDP revisions and weekly jobless claims—will define whether the current move gains momentum. Softer data would reinforce the dovish bias and likely support a break of the $4,191 level. Stronger-than-expected figures, however, may slow the rally by prompting traders to reassess the degree of easing priced in.

Geopolitical conditions continue to offer a stabilising layer rather than a direct catalyst. Tensions linked to Ukraine remain active, and uncertainty surrounding potential diplomatic shifts has limited downside even as equities advance. Central bank demand, persistent throughout the year, adds another element of support.

For now, gold sits at a pivotal juncture. A clean breakout above $4,191—and especially $4,275—would confirm renewed upward momentum and attract fresh inflows. A rejection at the trendline would shift attention back toward $4,073 and the $4,000 floor.

In earlier coverage, we noted that gold was entering a compression phase above $4,050 with a bullish long-term bias, and that a break above the 0.618 retracement would be a key trigger for the next leg higher. The current structure aligns with that view, with buyers defending major supports while awaiting confirmation above $4,191.

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