Nasdaq Composite stalls after five-day surge as traders await Powell remarks and PMI data

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Nasdaq stalls ahead of U.S. PMI data report

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Sholanke Dele

01.12.2025

Nasdaq Composite stalls after five-day surge as traders await Powell remarks and PMI data — Nasdaq recovers 7.7% from November low as RSI turns constructive for December outlook

The Nasdaq Composite Index carried strong momentum through the end of November after five straight sessions of gains that lifted the price to a two-week high at 23,380. That advance marked a clear shift in market structure to bullish after the index had spent the first three weeks of November in a broad decline.

During this final stretch of November, investors eased off AI overvaluation concerns and began to price in December rate cuts, which supported a rebound in risk assets and encouraged rotation back into tech-heavy sectors.

- Nasdaq recovers 7.7% from November low as RSI turns constructive for December outlook.

- Futures dip 1% before Powell’s speech as traders assess stronger manufacturing data risk.

- Japan rate speculation and stronger U.S. data could threaten the Nasdaq’s 5-day rally

That shift helped the Nasdaq cut its November drawdown from 7.7% to 1.5%, as price climbed from the monthly low at 21,900 to the monthly close at 23,380. This move lifted the relative strength index from bearish territory into a constructive zone as dip buyers regained influence. However, the drawdown produced the first bearish monthly finish after seven months of uninterrupted gains. The combination of a structural break and improving RSI set a foundation for the new month, although the index has struggled to extend last week’s advance.

Nasdaq price dynamic (Oct - Nov 2025). Source: Tradingview

Today is Monday, December 1st and the Nasdaq is yet to produce follow through from the prior week’s surge. Futures were down more than 1% in the first half of the premarket session, sliding about 250 points as traders stepped aside ahead of key economic releases and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The next directional cue sits in the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The forecast sits at 49.0 against a previous reading of 48.7. An actual print above forecast would strengthen the dollar index and weigh on equities, since expansion above expectations often shifts rate cut bets and reduces appetite for tech stocks that thrive on weaker yields.

Bank of Japan rate hike expectation could be a headwind for the Nasdaq index

The macro layer broadened as market participants monitored expectations that the Bank of Japan could lift interest rates in December to counter domestic inflation pressures and a weakening yen. Higher Japanese rates would push government bond yields upward. Rising yields in Japan create an incentive for large Japanese institutions to repatriate capital from foreign markets back into domestic bonds. Pension funds, insurers, and banks are typically large holders of United States Treasuries and United States equities. Repatriation flows would pressure those assets and could create headwinds for the Nasdaq, since tech valuations tend to react sharply to reductions in global liquidity.

The week, therefore, opens at a junction where recent technical improvement meets a heavier macro calendar. Investors' reaction will tell if last week’s bullish structure will absorb stronger economic data, shifting rate expectations and potential cross-border capital adjustments led by Japan’s policy stance.

In recent analysis, we discussed how the Nasdaq extended its recovery to 6.3% after a breakout above 23,150 confirmed a bullish shift. Softer inflation and strong labor data boosted rate-cut expectations, supporting tech valuations.

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