Iran and U.S. intensify shipping attacks near Hormuz

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Iran and U.S. escalate maritime war

Highlights

U.S. and Iranian attacks are increasingly hitting commercial energy shipping.
Hormuz traffic fell to seven vessels on Wednesday, below the recent average.
Washington says it has struck 10 Iranian tankers over the past week.

Iran targeted two U.S. vessels and eight tankers after American forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers overnight, Reuters reported. Washington said the strikes were retaliation for repeated Iranian ballistic-missile attacks against a U.S. Navy warship, which escaped damage.

Commercial shipping takes heavier losses

The latest exchange has brought merchant vessels deeper into the conflict. One seafarer was killed aboard the Hercules Star while it was anchored off Dubai, and another crew member was reported missing. The New Andros, carrying roughly 2 million barrels of fuel oil, caught fire after a drone strike in Iraqi waters, although all 22 crew members were reported safe.

Other incidents were reported across the northern Gulf and Gulf of Oman, including damage to an LNG tanker at Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates.

Traffic through Hormuz is now deteriorating again. Preliminary ship-tracking data showed only seven vessels transited the strait Wednesday, down from 12 a day earlier and below the 10-day average of 14. Four ships exited and three entered. Among those leaving was the VLCC Finland Prosperity, carrying nearly 2 million barrels of crude. No LNG tanker exited the strait.

Conflict expands beyond the Gulf

Iran also launched ballistic missiles at a U.S.-used base in Jordan. Jordan said its defenses intercepted 18 of 20 missiles, while the remaining two landed in unpopulated areas without casualties.

Tehran has warned that further U.S. attacks could trigger a broader response and is preparing maps for an expanded maritime exclusion zone extending toward Chabahar near Pakistan.

President Donald Trump, meanwhile, argued that Tehran is trying to influence the November U.S. midterm elections and predicted that the war could end soon after the vote as pressure on Iran intensifies.

Market impact: Oil holds above $100

The renewed attacks have pushed the physical oil market back into focus. Brent broke above $100 a barrel for the first time since July, reflecting concerns that tanker losses and reduced Hormuz traffic could further restrict Middle Eastern exports.

Flows through the strait had recovered to 8 million to 9 million barrels per day before fighting resumed on Aug. 30 but subsequently fell as low as 2 million bpd. Fuel markets are also under pressure, with average U.S. diesel prices reaching a record above $5.94 a gallon.

As we previously reported, the U.S. increases pressure on Iran as Hormuz risks persist.

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