Central Asia and Mongolia growth outlook stays strong through 2027

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Central Asia & Mongolia growth outlook

Highlights

Kazakhstan's GDP growth is forecast at 4.7 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027 despite reduced oil and gas output from export disruptions.
The Kyrgyz Republic led first-half 2026 GDP growth at 11.1 per cent, driven by infrastructure investment, with EBRD projecting 8.7 per cent growth in 2026 and 7.0 per cent in 2027.
Mongolia's GDP rose 7.7 per cent year on year as coal output surged 52.4 per cent and copper increased 20 per cent, with 2026 growth forecast at 6.3 per cent.

EBRD outlook highlights regional drivers and risks

As reported by European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the latest Regional Economic Prospects report says growth across Central Asia and Mongolia remains strong in the first half of 2026 and is set to stay robust over the next two years. The bank says weaker demand from major trading partners, elevated global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict, disruptions to Russian fuel supplies and trade routes, and lower commodity prices could weigh on future expansion.

The strongest first-half GDP growth rates are recorded in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, where construction, manufacturing and domestic demand are the main drivers. Mongolia benefits from higher mining output and exports, while Turkmenistan posts stable expansion backed by services, construction and state-led investment.

Kazakhstan, the region's largest economy, slows to 4.1 per cent year on year in the first half of 2026 as disruptions on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium export route and incidents at the Tengiz field reduce oil and gas output. Even so, manufacturing and construction continue to expand, and the EBRD projects Kazakhstan's GDP growth at 4.7 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027.

Country trends show reliance on investment, mining and external demand

The Kyrgyz Republic records 11.1 per cent real GDP growth in the first half, driven by strong investment in transport, mining and energy infrastructure, with the EBRD forecasting 8.7 per cent growth in 2026 and 7.0 per cent in 2027. Mongolia grows 7.7 per cent year on year, led by mining, as coal production rises 52.4 per cent and copper output increases 20 per cent while production at Oyu Tolgoi continues to ramp up; the economy is forecast to expand 6.3 per cent in 2026 and 5.5 per cent in 2027.

Tajikistan posts 8.2 per cent growth in the first half, helped by services, manufacturing, agriculture, resilient household consumption and a 35.9 per cent rise in fixed capital investment. Exports jump 57.2 per cent on stronger shipments of mineral products and precious and semi-precious metals and stones, while growth is expected to moderate to 7.9 per cent in 2026 and 7.0 per cent in 2027.

Turkmenistan's economy expands 6.3 per cent in the first six months of 2026, with transport, communications, trade, services and construction supporting activity, and the country is projected to maintain 6.3 per cent growth in both 2026 and 2027. Uzbekistan accelerates to 8.5 per cent growth in the first half on strong services, manufacturing and investment, with GDP forecast to rise 7.5 per cent in 2026 and 6 per cent in 2027, although both economies remain exposed to weaker Chinese or Russian demand, fuel supply disruptions and higher import costs.

In our earlier article on record foreign-currency bond issuance by emerging market governments in 2026, we explained how sovereigns kept tapping dollar and euro markets despite higher global borrowing costs, a stronger U.S. dollar and war-related pressures. We noted that much of the funding was aimed at refinancing maturing debt and supporting reserves, underscoring how shifts in global rates and energy-linked risks feed directly into financing conditions for economies such as those in Central Asia.

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