Guinea-Bissau secures IMF staff deal for final ECF review

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Guinea-Bissau IMF final review

Highlights

IMF staff-level agreement enables Guinea-Bissau to access a final disbursement of SDR 1.17 million (U.S.$1.6 million), bringing total ECF disbursements to SDR 39.76 million (U.S.$53.9 million).
Guinea-Bissau's real GDP is projected to expand by 4.8% in 2026, driven by a cashew export campaign exceeding 2025 volumes by nearly 12%.
Fiscal deficit is projected to remain at 4.2% of GDP in 2026, with public debt stable at about 74% of GDP, reflecting sustained fiscal discipline and structural reforms.

Final review terms and 2026 outlook

As reported by the International Monetary Fund, the agreement follows talks in Bissau held from October 21 to November 3, 2026, led by mission chief Niko Hobdari, and remains subject to IMF management approval and Executive Board consideration.

In a statement issued at the end of the mission, Hobdari says completion of the review would allow a disbursement of SDR 1.17 million, or about U.S.$1.6 million, bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 39.76 million, or about U.S.$53.9 million. The IMF says program performance remains strong, supported by prudent macroeconomic policies, fiscal discipline and structural reforms aimed at preserving stability and supporting inclusive growth.

Real GDP is projected to expand by 4.8% in 2026, helped by a stronger-than-expected cashew export campaign that exceeds 2025 volumes by nearly 12%. Inflation stands at negative 0.7% year on year at end-September 2026, despite higher international fuel prices, as lower food prices and controlled domestic fuel prices help contain price pressures.

Fiscal discipline and post-program challenges

The fiscal deficit is projected to remain at 4.2% of GDP in 2026, supported by stronger cashew revenues, lower foreign-financed project spending and tighter expenditure controls. Public debt is seen at about 74% of GDP at end-2026, largely unchanged from end-2025, while the IMF says continued fiscal discipline and prudent borrowing remain essential to put debt on a firmer downward path over the medium term.

The draft 2027 budget reflects the government's effort to preserve gains made under the IMF-supported program while creating room for investment to support growth and development. The fund says risks to the outlook remain significant, including adverse weather, weaker terms of trade, political shocks and tighter financing conditions.

Since the start of the program, the IMF says Guinea-Bissau has narrowed its fiscal deficit from 8.2% of GDP in 2023 to a projected 4.2% in 2026, while improving revenue administration, public financial management and debt management. It adds that future structural reforms should strengthen tax compliance, improve public investment execution, address financial sector vulnerabilities and expand social assistance and safety nets.

In our earlier article on the IMF’s updated outlook for sub-Saharan Africa in 2026, we noted that growth was revised slightly higher even as the inflation trajectory worsened, pointing to the need for a firmer policy stance in many countries. We also highlighted mounting debt-service burdens and external risks—from tighter global financing conditions and weaker aid flows to El Niño-related shocks—that could strain fiscal and external buffers across the region.

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