Ghana secures IMF staff-level agreement on first PCI review as 2027 budget targets surplus

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Ghana IMF PCI review agreement

Highlights

Ghana reached IMF staff-level agreement on first PCI review after meeting most program targets; 2026 real GDP growth projected at 5.7 percent, October inflation at 5.5 percent.
2027 Budget targets a primary surplus of 0.5 percent of GDP to finance job creation, investment opportunities, and infrastructure under New Economy priorities.
IMF warns of ongoing external and domestic risks, urges prudent policy, enhanced reserve buffers, fiscal and governance reforms, and stricter spending controls to preserve stability.

Program review and 2027 fiscal plan

As reported by International Monetary Fund, the staff-level agreement follows a mission to Accra from October 22 to November 4 led by Ruben Atoyan for talks on the first review of Ghana's non-financing PCI program.

The agreement remains subject to approval by IMF management and the Executive Board. The IMF says macroeconomic stability is becoming more entrenched, with real GDP growth at 6.2 percent year on year in the first half of 2026 and projected at 5.7 percent for the full year, while October inflation stands at 5.5 percent, below the Bank of Ghana's target band of 8±2 percent.

Program performance is broadly satisfactory, with most quantitative targets under the review met. The IMF says the authorities have responded to a recent decline in foreign exchange reserves by shifting foreign exchange intermediation from the Bank of Ghana to GoldBod and by implementing a higher gold sale requirement for large-scale miners.

The 2027 Budget targets a primary surplus of 0.5 percent of GDP on a commitment basis, in line with the program. The IMF says the fiscal space created is intended to support investment under the government's New Economy priorities, including job creation, investment opportunities and infrastructure development.

Reserve risks and reform priorities

Structural reforms are continuing, including publication of the Fiscal Strategy Document, parliamentary approval of the new Cocoa Board Act and quarterly electricity tariff adjustments. The authorities also completed a review of customs and excise legislation ahead of schedule, while work continues on liquidity management reform at the Bank of Ghana, the rollout of the Integrated Tax Administration System, the operationalization of the Fiscal Council and preparation of the Fiscal Risk Statement.

The IMF says completing the remaining measures on time will be important, including the delayed publication of the audit of ECG's collection accounts. It adds that stronger project appraisal, competitive procurement and strict spending controls are needed to protect value for money and preserve debt sustainability.

Despite the progress, the fund says Ghana remains exposed to swings in gold, cocoa and oil prices, as well as geopolitical tensions and tighter global financial conditions. Domestic risks include sizable debt rollover needs, fiscal pressures linked to the energy, cocoa and gold sectors, and remaining weaknesses in the financial sector.

The IMF says prudent monetary policy, greater exchange rate flexibility, stronger reserve buffers and the buildup of a sinking fund for maturing debt remain central to stability. It also identifies governance measures, including the Conduct of Public Officers Bill, the second National Ethics and Anti-Corruption Action Plan and stronger oversight of state-owned enterprises, as important for building public trust and supporting private investment.

Sovereign borrowing risks in a higher-rate environment were the focus of our earlier report, which noted that prolonged geopolitical tensions and elevated public spending are squeezing fiscal headroom and making refinancing more costly. We highlighted that emerging and frontier markets are especially exposed because debt-service burdens tend to be high relative to narrower revenue bases, while persistent shocks to energy and food prices can keep inflation elevated and worsen credit pressures.

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