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Strait of Hormuz supply gap could spur global recession, James Pethokoukis warns
Oxford Economics estimates that a six-month interruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would create a gap of 13 million barrels per day in global oil supplies.
James Pethokoukis noted that such a disruption could trigger a worldwide recession, highlighting the critical importance of the Strait for global energy markets.
Pethokoukis has recently reported on major shifts in corporate and economic outlooks. He noted that Honda faces up to $15.7 billion in losses in the U.S. EV market following changes to its electrification strategy. In another piece, he cited Morgan Stanley’s revised 2026 outlook with expectations for higher inflation, increased unemployment, and delayed Fed cuts.
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