Macroeconomic policy, fiscal strategy, and economic reform by Skanda Amarnath
Skanda Amarnath: Canadian oil sector declined as U.S. fracking took market share
Skanda Amarnath observes that the decline or stagnation in the Canadian oil sector began after Trudeau won in late 2015, at a time when oil prices had already been in freefall for over a year. ...
Labor market momentum appears limited in June 2026, Skanda Amarnath notes
Skanda Amarnath reviews the U.S. labor market in June 2026, describing it as unusual. While the prime-age employment rate has dropped, Amarnath suggests that conditions are not as severe as this ...
Skanda Amarnath: Some firms relied on financial engineering and buybacks instead of profits
Skanda Amarnath comments on the use of financial engineering by certain companies that struggled to deliver profits. According to Amarnath, these firms instead engaged in shareholder buybacks as ...
Fed officials may consider hike as early as September, Skanda Amarnath expects
Skanda Amarnath expects that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in July. He notes that while some Fed officials appear open to a hike as early as September, his base-case ...
Skanda Amarnath: Rising PPI and core PCE raise concerns over persistent U.S. inflation
Skanda Amarnath calls attention to a sharp uptick in the U.S. Producer Price Index, describing the release as "brutal." Amarnath highlights that the Federal Reserve's inflation measures are moving ...
Temp help jobs shift from contraction to growth, Skanda Amarnath notes
Skanda Amarnath highlights that one of the factors behind the recent turnaround in job growth is the stabilization and renewed growth of temporary help jobs. According to Amarnath, these jobs ...
Skanda Amarnath: Paulson’s pivot to bank recapitalization boosted taxpayer upside
Skanda Amarnath credits former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson for moving away from his initial strategy of purchasing toxic assets and, instead, focusing on recapitalizing the banking ...
Inflation reacceleration could alter macro tradeoffs, Skanda Amarnath warns
Skanda Amarnath remarks that persistent and broad excess inflation is unlikely to surprise market observers, especially with signs of inflation reaccelerating and a Federal Reserve chair perceived ...
Skanda Amarnath: Supply shocks threaten real income gains
Skanda Amarnath, industry influencer, observes that recent data on nominal labor income growth is somewhat backward looking but had indicated a soft landing with stabilization at a healthy pace. ...
Core PCE remains more than 1 percent above target as rates hover near neutral, Skanda Amarnath warns
Skanda Amarnath, industry influencer, outlines several key shifts in economic conditions. Amarnath points to a notable rise in both headline and core PCE inflation, with levels now more than 1 ...
@mtkonczal: Market-based nonhousing components face methodological challenges
@mtkonczal, industry influencer, draws attention to the market-based nonhousing subset of source components to address methodological issues and lags. The brief post highlights ongoing concerns ...
Trimmed mean places high weight on housing PCE, Skanda Amarnath argues
Skanda Amarnath discusses methodological concerns with the trimmed mean approach to measuring inflation. According to Amarnath, the trimmed mean places a significant weight on housing Personal ...
Skanda Amarnath: Kevin Warsh approaches key Fed Chair hearing with mixed track record
Kevin Warsh is expected to play a prominent role in today's hearing, with growing anticipation that he will become the next Federal Reserve Chair. Skanda Amarnath suggests that while Warsh may ...
Risking downsides of price controls to manage markets, Skanda Amarnath warns
Skanda Amarnath questions the effectiveness of strategies aimed at managing markets through theatrics without reaching substantive agreements. He argues that such actions could lead to ...
Skanda Amarnath: Fed focus is on age-adjusted employment-to-population ratios
Skanda Amarnath highlights that the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to the evolution of employment-to-population ratios, particularly on an age-adjusted basis. He points out that this ...
U.S. can absorb higher oil prices without triggering recession, Skanda Amarnath states
The U.S. economy is capable of handling substantially higher oil prices without entering a recession, according to Skanda Amarnath. While Amarnath acknowledges that rising oil prices may not be ...
Skanda Amarnath: Taco risk functions as negative risk premium in hedging
Skanda Amarnath addresses the concept of taco risk, describing it as similar to a negative risk premium. He explains that this functions as a penalty faced when hedging true tail risk in financial ...
Passthrough effects shift as shocks persist, Skanda Amarnath notes
Passthrough effects are not constant and can become more pronounced the longer a shock persists, according to Skanda Amarnath. He suggests that while the prudent response is to look through these ...
Skanda Amarnath: Fed remains dovish despite rising core PCE inflation
Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation has been trending more than 1% above target, according to Skanda Amarnath. Despite this persistent inflation, Amarnath points out that ...
Administration oil futures strategy comes under scrutiny, Skanda Amarnath notes
Skanda Amarnath commented on the recent discussion about the U.S. administration's approach to trading oil futures. Amarnath expressed skepticism that the current outcome aligns with what ...
Skanda Amarnath: February jobs report preview set for tomorrow at 8:10 eastern
Skanda Amarnath announced a preview and coverage of the February Jobs Report scheduled for tomorrow at 8:10 eastern. The update will feature Amarnath and a colleague as they share insights ahead ...
