Garry Tan: Fable ban estimated to cost $12M per hour in lost productivity

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Fable ban could cost $12M an hour

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1 hour ago

Garry Tan: Fable ban estimated to cost $12M per hour in lost productivity — Fable ban could cost $12M an hour

Garry Tan, president and CEO at Y Combinator, estimates that the ban of Fable 5 could result in a $12 million loss in productivity per hour.

Tan cites a rough calculation based on 5 million daily active frontier AI-coding developers expected by mid-2026, each with a fully loaded cost of $90 per hour. According to his analysis, Fable handled 17.8% of work over 48 hours and provided an average productivity gain of around 15%, resulting in a substantial throughput loss for developers following the ban.

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