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Jesús Fernández-Villaverde highlights the significant sequencing risk individual investors face in the stock market, especially over a finite investment horizon.
He challenges the common belief that diversifying across countries effectively mitigates this risk. According to Fernández-Villaverde, Dimson-Marsh-Staunton data shows U.S. equities delivered about a 6.6% return from 1900 to 2024, underscoring his point that global diversification does not fully solve sequencing challenges.
Fernández-Villaverde has previously examined how historical policy measures shaped economic outcomes. In an earlier analysis, he explored the role of early 1800s U.S. trade restrictions and conflict in fostering domestic manufacturing growth. His research often places current investment concerns in a wider historical context.