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Phil Rosen highlights that energy XLE has surpassed the performance of the S&P 500 in the second half of the year only three times since 2015, specifically following oil supply shocks in 2016, 2017, and 2022.
He adds that the ongoing conflict involving Iran could create a similar environment for energy stocks in 2026.
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Rosen previously highlighted that the S&P 500 climbed 38.5% and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 51.4% since June 2024 following Goldman Sachs's AI caution, according to a recent post here. In a separate analysis, he reported on Mike Green's warning about the risk of a 1987-style market crash as passive flows and household equity exposure reach new highs here. Both updates underline continued attention to significant moves in equities and potential risk factors.