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Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent at Wall Street Journal, reports that Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller's overall posture has not changed since July, but his stance has shifted from being worried with a lean toward tightening, to being tentatively encouraged and inclined to hold rates steady.
According to Timiraos, Waller's next move will depend on the August inflation readings, which will be crucial in shaping his reaction.
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In July, Nick Timiraos reported that a San Francisco Fed economist estimated the medium-run neutral rate near 1.5 percent, suggesting U.S. policy might remain accommodative if inflation is 2.5 percent or higher (see article). He also covered expectations for interest rates to fall following the Iran conflict, with AI investments expected to contribute to disinflation (full details here). Timiraos continues to track Fed policymakers' statements ahead of key data releases.