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Joao Wedson: Historical Bitcoin cost basis signal faces new test

Joao Wedson: Historical Bitcoin cost basis signal faces new test
Bitcoin cost basis signal faces test

Joao Wedson questions whether one of Bitcoin’s most reliable historical signals could fail to work this time. For years, the interaction between the short-term cost basis and the long-term cost basis has served as a tool to identify major market transitions with notable precision.

Wedson highlights new key levels for the short-term cost basis, raising uncertainty over whether the established relationship will continue to guide market participants effectively.

Wedson previously identified a 72 percent similarity between the 1H and 4H Bitcoin timeframes near the October 2025 all-time high, as reported in BTC timeframe similarity findings. In a separate analysis, he noted that Zcash was trading above key on-chain levels and market mean indicators, entering a stretched price zone according to his Zcash report. Both posts focused on interpreting on-chain data to identify notable market levels.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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