Blockchain analytics, altcoin market insights, and crypto forecasting by Joao Wedson
Joao Wedson is founder and Chief Executive Officer of Alphractal, a blockchain analytics firm that produces data-driven reports on market cycles and liquidity flows. Since 2022, Wedson has published more than 20 research notes tracking Bitcoin dominance, altcoin accumulation phases, and total value locked in DeFi. In April 2025, he predicted a window for altcoin resurgence between June and September, when Bitcoin dominance exceeded 62 percent and capital rotation signals appeared.
By July 2025, Wedson issued a warning that market conditions suggested a potential Bitcoin pullback below $65,000, while maintaining a longer-term scenario where prices could reach $140,000 if momentum held. His analysis has been featured in Cointelegraph, Coindoo, and Traders Union, and he has appeared in over 15 podcast interviews. Wedson’s audience exceeds 50,000 across social media platforms, where engagement often surpasses 5,000 interactions per forecast. With a quant-focused style and consistent public tracking of cycle indicators, Wedson has become an active voice for investors seeking structured approaches to altcoin timing and Bitcoin risk management.
Joao Wedson: Bitcoin bulls face pressure if BTC falls below $75,000
Joao Wedson cautioned that many Bitcoin bulls could be under considerable pressure if BTC drops further from the $75,000 mark. He also advised being extremely cautious with leveraged positions at ...
Bitcoin not yet in uptrend with slow market expected, Joao Wedson suggests
Joao Wedson states that Bitcoin is not currently in an uptrend but is still in its accumulation phase. On-chain momentum remains weak despite a recent price recovery. According to Joao Wedson, ...
Joao Wedson: Bitcoin long/short ratio may signal local bottoms
Joao Wedson observes that when Bitcoin's long/short ratio exceeds the average long/short ratio of altcoins, BTC often forms local bottoms or halts its decline temporarily. He also mentions that ...
Bitcoin sell pressure overtakes buy, Joao Wedson notes
Joao Wedson highlights that Bitcoin’s buy and sell pressure delta has turned negative once again, indicating that bearish sentiment currently dominates the market. The development raises ...
Joao Wedson: Solana and hyperliquid bulls face ongoing liquidation risk
Joao Wedson warned two days ago about significant long liquidation risks in Solana and hyperliquid. Today, the author reports that bullish positions in these assets have already faced liquidations ...
Nearly 13% of Bitcoin supply acquired around $77,000 to $79,000, Joao Wedson notes
Joao Wedson identifies $77,000 to $79,000 as the most significant price zone for Bitcoin at present. This range represents the average break-even point for the two largest institutional Bitcoin ...
Joao Wedson: Whales and top traders increase short positions on largest exchanges
Joao Wedson highlights a shift in trading behavior, noting that whales are increasing their short positions. Top traders are also moving back toward shorts across the largest crypto ...
Bitcoin appears to be moving independently of global M2 money supply, Joao Wedson notes
Joao Wedson observes that Bitcoin’s relationship with global M2 money supply on a year-over-year basis appears to be weakening. According to Joao Wedson, Bitcoin now seems to be moving ...
Joao Wedson: All-in-one crypto analytics combines derivatives, onchain, macro, and sentiment data
Joao Wedson describes how combining multiple data layers—derivatives, onchain metrics, macroeconomic indicators, and sentiment analysis—transforms an analytics platform into what he calls a ...
Bitcoin price climbs while momentum remains low, Joao Wedson notes
Joao Wedson highlights that Bitcoin’s multi-timeframe momentum has returned to positive territory. While bitcoin:native has been recovering, the current momentum signal is only about +0.06, ...
Joao Wedson: Bitcoin bear market shows structural changes from previous cycles
Joao Wedson observes a Bitcoin bear market that differs from previous downturns in several key respects. Despite being 362 days removed from its all-time high, Bitcoin continues to trade well ...
Long positions dominate on Hyperliquid, Joao Wedson expects
Joao Wedson highlights a notable increase in long positions compared to shorts on Hyperliquid, a trend mirroring activity seen on other exchanges as trader behavior remains highly correlated ...
Joao Wedson: Bitcoin active supply falls despite price near $84K
Joao Wedson highlights that Bitcoin is trading close to $84,000, but interest from supply participants continues to decline. Only 7.38 million BTC have been active at least once over the past ...
Crypto begins to move independently of stocks, Joao Wedson notes
Joao Wedson observes that the crypto market is starting to ignore traditional financial markets once again. According to the tweet, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional markets ...
Joao Wedson: Whale bullish sentiment alone not enough to drive market
Joao Wedson observes that whales generally position themselves ahead of retail investors, as indicated by the Whales vs Retail Delta metric. However, Wedson points out that recent periods of ...
Ethereum onchain transfer volume above $100K sets new high, Joao Wedson notes
Joao Wedson reports that Ethereum has recorded the highest average transfer size in USD in its history. According to Wedson, transfers exceeding $100,000 reached an all-time high on September ...
Joao Wedson: Historical Bitcoin cost basis signal faces new test
Joao Wedson questions whether one of Bitcoin’s most reliable historical signals could fail to work this time. For years, the interaction between the short-term cost basis and the long-term cost ...
Equity indexes reach highs while fear persists, Joao Wedson notes
Joao Wedson observes a notable divergence in sentiment between equities and crypto markets. He points out that the S&P 500 is trading close to its all-time highs, yet the Stocks Fear & Greed Index ...
Joao Wedson: Automating crypto research and analysis with Alphractal MCP and ChatGPT scheduler
Joao Wedson outlines a practical example of integrating the Alphractal MCP with the ChatGPT scheduler to streamline crypto workflows. The approach supports automated analysis, signals, and ...
Crypto prices up while interest stays low, Joao Wedson notes
Joao Wedson points out that despite a rise in crypto prices, worldwide interest in the sector appears subdued. Citing an analysis by @_Crypto_glass, Wedson notes that web search activity has not ...
Joao Wedson: Yearly open remains a resistance level after CZ message
Joao Wedson observes that the yearly open has acted as a resistance level in current market conditions. He also indicates that the recent message from Binance founder CZ is difficult to ignore, ...
