Andreas Steno Larsen: Fed speech lifts market odds of a rate cut to 44 percent

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Fed speech lifts rate cut probability

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Yaroslav Dmytrenko

30.09.2026

Andreas Steno Larsen: Fed speech lifts market odds of a rate cut to 44 percent — Fed speech lifts rate cut probability

Andreas Steno Larsen, founder & CEO, observes that comments from New York Fed President John Williams have increased the likelihood of a rate cut to 44 percent, as reflected in market charts. He questions whether the absence of perceived urgency from the Federal Reserve will lead bond traders to push yields higher, and suggests watching the situation after Friday’s payroll data.

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Earlier, Steno Larsen highlighted that U.S. bonds have experienced their worst 10-year stretch since 1803. He has also noted that copper prices surged more than 68% since April 2025, reaching a record high above $14,530 a ton. These observations provide context for his recent focus on Fed policy signals and bond market reactions.

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