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Eric Basmajian: Cyclical payrolls signal changes in economic momentum

Eric Basmajian: Cyclical payrolls signal changes in economic momentum
Cyclical payrolls show economic momentum shifts

Eric Basmajian highlights the role of cyclical payrolls in tracking broader economic trends.

According to Basmajian, these payrolls provide a clearer indication of whether economic weakness is spreading or reversing, and reveal shifts in economic momentum.

Basmajian has previously noted that most major U.S. recessions since 1970 saw the largest drawdowns in housing and durable goods, with the 2001 downturn as an exception (details). In a separate analysis, he observed that homebuilders delayed layoffs amid high profit margins, but rising interest rates have put pressure on margins and job stability (more here). These observations add context to his focus on payroll changes as signals for broader economic conditions.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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