Macroeconomic Research and Market Analysis by Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian is founder of EPB Macro Research, a service focused on long-term and short-term economic cycle identification through quantitative data. Formerly part of a hedge fund macro research team, Basmajian has ranked among Seeking Alpha’s most-read economists, building a subscriber base exceeding 10,000 paid readers.
In Q2 2025, Basmajian published a cycle breakdown noting that leading indicators for consumer credit, labor force participation, and capital investment have inverted—supporting cautious positioning in high-beta sectors including crypto. His proprietary framework distinguishes four primary cycles: growth, inflation, employment, and industrial production, often correlating with crypto inflow and outflow regimes.
Through charts, premium dashboards, and research webinars, Basmajian equips traders with frameworks to align crypto exposure with real-economy rhythms.
Eighty percent of historical periods surpassed today’s economy, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian points out that, based on his analysis, the economy was better than it is today in 80 percent of historical cases. He mentions that this topic will be further explored in his ...
Eric Basmajian: Residential building payrolls down 2.5% from peak in latest economic cycle
Eric Basmajian observes that at the onset of the last three recessions, residential building payrolls declined approximately 8% to 12% from their peak levels. Currently, payrolls in this sector ...
Employment and labor force both fall, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian reports that over the past six months, total employment in the U.S. decreased by 1.728 million while the total labor force contracted by 2.137 million. As a result of these ...
Eric Basmajian: Leading economic indicators reviewed for current cycle
Eric Basmajian reviewed the Leading Economic Indicators and assessed what occurred during this economic cycle in January. The update offered an analysis of the latest trends as observed in the ...
Durable goods output rises with AI spending, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian highlights that durable goods manufacturing production is experiencing significant growth, primarily driven by the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure. He explains ...
Eric Basmajian: GDP headline figure misses economic cycle trends
Eric Basmajian emphasizes that while GDP is the most widely reported number in economics, it does not reveal where the economic cycle is heading. He outlines steps to better interpret GDP ...
Nominal growth has remained stable for over two years without inventories and trade, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian points out that nominal growth has remained remarkably stable for over two years when inventories and trade are excluded. His observation underscores a consistent economic trend ...
Eric Basmajian: Government payments offset declining employment-to-population ratio
Eric Basmajian highlights that the prime-age labor market remains stable, but the overall employment-to-population ratio is quickly decreasing. He observes that while fewer workers would ...
Wages have dropped as a share of income, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian highlights a shift in the sources of American personal income. According to Basmajian, the proportion of income derived from wages has fallen from 73% in 1970 to 60.5% today. In ...
Eric Basmajian: Corporate profit margins reach record high as worker pay lags
Eric Basmajian reports that corporate profit margins have hit 20.6 percent, marking the highest level on record. At the same time, he observes that the typical worker's pay has stalled and ...
Owning stocks aligns with winning side of trade, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian argues that the prevailing trade in financial markets involves investors owning stocks to stay on the winning side. He attributes the ongoing strength of the bull case to record ...
Eric Basmajian: Only residential investment is contracting among three key recession drivers
Eric Basmajian points out that less than 20 percent of gross domestic product is responsible for all recessions in the U.S. He highlights that residential investment, durable goods consumption, ...
Worst and best quarterly stock periods happen during recessions, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian observes that both the worst and best three-month periods for stocks typically take place within a recession. This highlights that significant volatility in stock market ...
Eric Basmajian: Real Fed Funds Rate Negative in Most Recent U.S. Expansion
Eric Basmajian examines the trend of the real Fed Funds rate during economic expansions. According to Basmajian, since the end of the 2008 recession, the real Fed Funds rate has been negative ...
Building permits lead construction cycles by a year, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian explains that building permits and units under construction both reflect the housing cycle, but with a clear lead-lag relationship. Permits act as a leading indicator, while ...
Eric Basmajian: Mega-cap stocks account for 20% of all U.S. corporate profits
Eric Basmajian examines how owning just five major stocks—Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta—can provide exposure to as many as 70 businesses. He observes that these mega-cap ...
Home prices stagnate in prior boom cities as others reach highs, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian, industry influencer, observes that U.S. cities which experienced the largest home price booms—such as Phoenix, Tampa, San Francisco, and Seattle—are now lagging in market ...
Eric Basmajian: Real personal income per capita is now $3,267 below 2009-2020 trend
Eric Basmajian, industry influencer, reports that real personal income per capita in the U.S. has not grown for the past 15 months. According to Basmajian, the current figure is $3,267 below ...
Finished and unstarted homes have very different costs, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian, industry influencer, highlights that finished homes are significantly more expensive to carry compared to homes that have not yet been started. He points out that while the months ...
Eric Basmajian: Real personal income per capita lags $3,187 behind 2009-2020 trend
Real personal income per capita has remained stagnant for the past 11 months, according to Eric Basmajian. He highlights that the figure is now $3,187 below the 2009-2020 trend, a gap he says ...
Only 15.5 percent of private sector jobs are cyclical, Eric Basmajian emphasizes
Eric Basmajian highlights the varying impact of different job segments within the U.S. private sector. According to Basmajian, there are 135 million private sector jobs, with 25 percent considered ...
