Macroeconomic Research and Market Analysis by Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian is founder of EPB Macro Research, a service focused on long-term and short-term economic cycle identification through quantitative data. Formerly part of a hedge fund macro research team, Basmajian has ranked among Seeking Alpha’s most-read economists, building a subscriber base exceeding 10,000 paid readers.
In Q2 2025, Basmajian published a cycle breakdown noting that leading indicators for consumer credit, labor force participation, and capital investment have inverted—supporting cautious positioning in high-beta sectors including crypto. His proprietary framework distinguishes four primary cycles: growth, inflation, employment, and industrial production, often correlating with crypto inflow and outflow regimes.
Through charts, premium dashboards, and research webinars, Basmajian equips traders with frameworks to align crypto exposure with real-economy rhythms.
Eric Basmajian: Homebuilders have 279,000 approved homes not yet started
The number of homes that have been approved for construction but not yet started by builders currently stands at 279,000, representing 2.37 months of permits and nearing the highest levels in over ...
Housing starts typically fall more before recessions than now, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian said residential construction remains depressed, but noted that housing starts usually decline more sharply ahead of recessionary periods than they have at ...
Eric Basmajian: Core inflation increases of 0.5% were twice as common as decreases under similar money and payroll growth
When money supply growth was between 4% and 8% and cyclical payroll growth was between 0% and 2%—matching current conditions—a 0.5% increase in core inflation was twice as common as a 0.5% ...
People may struggle to find jobs even outside a recession, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian stated that the labor market can feel weak even when it is not in a recessionary state. He explained that while layoffs and job losses may be far from recessionary levels, ...
Eric Basmajian: Jobless claims appear strong while labor market feels weaker
Jobless claims currently look exceptionally strong, but the labor market does not feel that way to many observers. Eric Basmajian questioned in a recent post why the perceived strength in jobless ...
Jobless claims hover at record lows while labor market remains weak, Eric Basmajian notes
Jobless claims are currently at or near record lows, even though the overall labor market still feels weak. Eric Basmajian shared this assessment, stating that both conditions can be true ...
Eric Basmajian: Addressing U.S. fiscal challenges requires focus on key spending areas
Eric Basmajian calls for an honest discussion about the U.S. fiscal situation, emphasizing the need to address five major line items or significantly raise taxes. He adds that other factors, such ...
Non-residential construction payrolls hit new high, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian reports that non-residential construction payrolls have reached a new high. Residential construction payrolls, in contrast, are currently near a cycle ...
Eric Basmajian: Cyclical payrolls signal changes in economic momentum
Eric Basmajian highlights the role of cyclical payrolls in tracking broader economic trends. According to Basmajian, these payrolls provide a clearer indication of whether economic weakness is ...
Cyclical payrolls jumped to a new high in September, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian reports that cyclical payrolls experienced a significant increase in September, hitting a new high for the current cycle. The latest data reflects a notable upward movement in ...
Eric Basmajian: Rising interest rates threaten homebuilder profit margins and job stability
Eric Basmajian highlights that elevated profit margins in the homebuilding industry have enabled companies to avoid layoffs despite more than four years of weakness in the housing sector. ...
Major recession drawdowns focused on housing and durable goods, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian states that since 1970, with the exception of the pandemic period, the most significant cyclical drawdowns during nearly every recession in the U.S. have been concentrated in ...
Eric Basmajian: Business investment may be expanding beyond computer equipment
Eric Basmajian questions whether business investment is beginning to expand beyond computer equipment. He notes that this topic will be the focus of his forthcoming Sunday ...
Core inflation cools from 6.5 percent to 2.5 percent as cyclical jobs grow, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian highlights that core inflation, excluding energy, has stayed above 2 percent for an extended period. He observes that while core inflation cooled from 6.5 percent to 2.5 percent ...
Eric Basmajian: Post-2008 negative real rates may signal new economic norm
Eric Basmajian questions whether the era of negative real interest rates following 2008 was an exception or a sign of a lasting change. He points out that while the current economic expansion has ...
Housing and homebuilder profits fell as rates rose, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian highlights that housing in the U.S. has been weakening since the Federal Reserve began tightening policy in 2022. Residential investment contracted and homebuilder profit margins ...
Eric Basmajian: Total debt-to-GDP steady for over 10 years as government debt rises
Eric Basmajian observes that total debt-to-GDP has stayed around 360% for more than a decade. He notes that the change over this period has been a shift toward increased government debt while ...
Ongoing upturn in cyclical payrolls seen in August report, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian points to the ongoing upturn in cyclical payrolls as the most important aspect of the August employment report. He emphasizes that this trend in cyclical payrolls stands out among ...
Eric Basmajian: One-third of personal income comes from government transfers and assets
Eric Basmajian notes that one-third of personal income now originates from government transfer payments and income from assets. He adds that this mix of income sources results in lower ...
Stock market keeps setting records but wealth gap widens, Eric Basmajian notes
Eric Basmajian observes that although the stock market is reaching new record highs, most Americans do not feel any richer. He attributes this gap to a single key factor and suggests that the ...
Eric Basmajian: Employment analysis featured in new business cycle research for investors
Eric Basmajian shares that the charts referenced are part of an employment-focused report, which forms one component of a full-service business cycle research package designed for institutional ...
