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Eric Basmajian: Residential building payrolls down 2.5% from peak in latest economic cycle

Eric Basmajian: Residential building payrolls down 2.5% from peak in latest economic cycle
Residential payrolls fall less than past cycles

Eric Basmajian observes that at the onset of the last three recessions, residential building payrolls declined approximately 8% to 12% from their peak levels.

Currently, payrolls in this sector have only fallen by 2.5%, which he describes as the most critical variable in the economy and suggests is the reason why the next key domino in the economic cycle has not yet fallen.

Basmajian has previously examined the performance of Leading Economic Indicators during the current cycle. Earlier this year, he also highlighted a surge in durable goods manufacturing driven by AI investment, reflected in U.S. GDP data as increased business equipment spending in a separate analysis. These observations provide context for his focus on payrolls as a critical economic metric.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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