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Eric Basmajian observes that both the worst and best three-month periods for stocks typically take place within a recession.
This highlights that significant volatility in stock market performance is concentrated during recessionary phases, with sharp declines and gains frequently coinciding with periods of economic downturn.
Basmajian previously noted that mega-cap tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft represent 20% of U.S. corporate profits. In an earlier report, he discussed how the real Fed Funds rate was negative about 75% of the time since the 2008 recession ended. These observations add context to the patterns of volatility seen during economic downturns.