Bitcoin has extended its recovery toward the $64,000 area as institutional demand continues to improve following one of the weakest periods for spot ETF flows this year. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently returned to net inflows, led by strong buying in BlackRock's IBIT, suggesting investors are gradually rebuilding positions after the late June selloff.
Although weekly flows remain negative overall, recent sessions indicate that institutional sentiment has become more constructive.
At the same time, traders remain focused on Friday's $1.4 billion Bitcoin options expiry, which could increase short-term volatility as large derivatives positions are rolled over or closed.
Fed expectations and geopolitics remain key drivers
The macro backdrop has also become somewhat more supportive for risk assets. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will avoid another immediate rate increase have eased pressure on Treasury yields and improved broader market sentiment. Meanwhile, developments in the Middle East continue to influence financial markets, although Bitcoin has become less sensitive to geopolitical headlines as investors shift their attention back toward monetary policy and institutional flows.
Even so, uncertainty surrounding global growth and interest rates continues to limit aggressive risk-taking, suggesting that any sustained rally will likely require further confirmation from incoming U.S. inflation data and continued ETF demand.
Technical picture points to improving momentum
The hourly chart shows Bitcoin recovering steadily from the recent lows near $58,000 and approaching an important resistance zone around $64,300-64,500. Price has reclaimed its short, medium, and long-term moving averages, while the upward alignment of the shorter-term averages suggests bullish momentum has strengthened during the latest rebound.
A sustained break above $64,500 could open the way toward $66,000, while initial support has moved higher to the $63,000-63,200 region. As I noted in the previous article, Bitcoin rebounds as ETF inflows improve and macro pressure eases, the cryptocurrency's longer-term outlook remains constructive, although a decisive break above nearby resistance is still needed to confirm a broader bullish reversal.
As I noted in the previous article, Bitcoin struggles below resistance as ETF inflows support market sentiment, Bitcoin is likely to continue trading within a broad range in the near term as investors await a stronger catalyst for the next directional move.
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