Debt-to-GDP ratio must stay stable throughout cycle, Jon Steinsson argues

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20.10.2026

Debt-to-GDP ratio must stay stable throughout cycle, Jon Steinsson argues — Debt-to-GDP should be stable across cycle

Jon Steinsson stated that the debt-to-GDP ratio should be stable over the entire course of a business cycle, not just at its peak. He argued that if the ratio is only stable at the top of the cycle, it will increase over the whole cycle, as has been observed since 2000, and described this trend as unsustainable.

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Steinsson has previously highlighted the scale of investment needed for future growth. In an earlier analysis, he estimated that AI infrastructure may require $10.3 trillion over eight years. He also projected that related revenues could reach significant levels by 2032.

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