BT Group shares hold above GBX 200 as recovery strengthens
BT Group held support at GBX 193.70 and broke out of its short-term descending channel, moving back above key moving averages. The fundamental backdrop, however, remains mixed.
According to Point Topic, the number of fixed broadband connections in the UK was virtually unchanged in the second quarter at around 29.37 million.
For BT Group, this means more limited opportunities to expand its subscriber base organically. As a result, migrating existing customers to full fibre, improving retention, and increasing the value of each connection are becoming increasingly important.
Break above key moving averages strengthens momentum
Support at GBX 193.70, highlighted in the previous analysis, held before BT-A shares broke out of the short-term descending channel and moved above both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
GBX 205 now becomes the key resistance. A decisive break and sustained move above this level could open the way toward the next target near GBX 210.
To preserve the improved structure, however, the shares need to remain firmly above the psychological GBX 200 level. A move back below it would weaken the current momentum and increase the risk of another test of the recently cleared moving averages.
Fibre execution becomes more important in a flat market
The break above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs has materially improved BT Group’s technical structure, but buyers still need confirmation above GBX 205 for the recovery to extend.
With the broadband market showing little growth, any further re-rating of the shares will increasingly depend on BT’s ability to generate more value from its existing customer base.
Higher full-fibre penetration and stronger economics per connection could become more important fundamental drivers than growth in the total number of broadband customers.
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