Can Nike stabilize after falling to its lowest level since 2014?

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Mykhailo Ihnatenko

18.08.2026

Can Nike stabilize after falling to its lowest level since 2014? — The $38–38.50 zone becomes Nike’s next key support.

Nike remains under pressure after hitting multi-year lows despite receiving nearly $1 billion in refunds on previously paid U.S. tariffs. A weak fundamental backdrop and rising Treasury yields leave NKE vulnerable to further downside.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Nike was among the largest recipients of refunds on previously paid U.S. tariffs. The total amount is around $986 million, including $302 million received in the final quarter of fiscal 2026, with nearly all of the remaining balance arriving by mid-July.

For Nike, the refunds are positive for cash flow and margins. However, the benefit is largely one-off and does little by itself to address the challenges facing the core business.

Under previous management, Nike shifted too aggressively toward direct-to-consumer sales and reduced its presence with major wholesale partners. Adidas, Hoka, On, and other competitors filled the space left behind, forcing Nike to rebuild relationships with retailers.

Serious challenges also remain in China. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Nike sales in Greater China fell 17% at constant currency, while full-year revenue declined 13%. The company continues to lose market share to domestic brands, including Anta and Li Ning.

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$38–38.50 becomes the next key support zone

The nearest support for NKE is the $38–38.50 area. However, this zone dates back to 2014, which could limit its relevance to the current price structure.

The psychological $40 level remains the nearest resistance. The base case for the coming days is a further decline toward $38–38.50, followed by an attempt to stabilize.

To improve the short-term structure, buyers first need to push the stock back above $40 and show that the decline to multi-year lows is beginning to attract sustained demand.

Rising Treasury yields increase pressure on NKE

Conditions in the bond market are adding another source of pressure. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield stands at 5.31%, topping 5.3% for the first time since June 2007 and reaching its highest level in roughly 19 years. The increase accelerated amid rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns.

For the stock market, higher Treasury yields are an unfavorable factor, as capital can shift from equities into government bonds while the required return on stocks also rises.

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