Can Oracle stock hold $139.08 support after major workforce reduction?

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Oracle slides 3.79% today on selling

Highlights

Oracle reported 30% year-over-year revenue growth as demand for its AI-powered cloud infrastructure accelerated, surpassing Wall Street targets.
Oracle increased its cost-reduction initiative to $2.8 billion with approximately 21,000 job cuts and expanded its AI cloud infrastructure backlog to $664 billion.
Shares of Oracle closed sharply lower at $144.89 under strong selling pressure, with technicals indicating probable further declines and a projected range of $139.08 to $150.7.

Revenue acceleration offset by restructuring and large-scale cost cuts

Oracle posted a 30% year-over-year revenue increase for its most recent fiscal quarter as accelerating demand for its AI-driven cloud infrastructure enabled the company to surpass Wall Street’s revenue and earnings targets, according to Communicationstoday Co. Despite this strong performance, the period also brought continued restructuring, with Oracle increasing its cost-reduction plan to $2.8 billion and cutting approximately 21,000 roles to prioritize investment in its artificial intelligence cloud capacity, as reported by Simplywall and Finance Yahoo. The company’s AI infrastructure backlog grew to $664 billion, supporting future revenue visibility, while infrastructure projects like Project Jupiter in New Mexico continue to advance under existing permits, according to Finance Yahoo. In addition, Oracle CEO Michael Sicilia completed a pre-scheduled insider sale of company shares valued at $1.5 million, a move that typically has limited market impact, based on data from Investing.com, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Volatile momentum as mixed indicators define boundary levels

Technically, ORCL trades below its MA-20 at $145.97, MA-50 at $148.32, and MA-200 at $166.5, marking these as overhead resistance. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $145.5 presents immediate resistance, while the next notable support lies near $139.08. Momentum signals are sharply mixed: MACD is on a Buy signal, but ADX points to trend weakness. Both RSI and CCI are flashing short-term Buy indications; however, Stoch RSI shows a Strong Sell and Bull/Bear Power indicates buyer dominance, underscoring volatile momentum. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, highlighting divergence among oscillators as ORCL closes near session lows.

Downside risk dominates as rebound odds remain minimal

In the short term, the projected trading range for ORCL is $139.08 to $150.7, with a volatility band reflecting current conditions. There is a very low probability of a near-term rebound, and further declines are much more likely. The baseline scenario is for price action to stay within this corridor, though a clear break below support near $139 could open the door to additional downside. Conversely, a close above immediate resistance would set the stage for a test of the upper bound.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the latest Oracle results as fundamentally strong, with robust AI-driven revenue growth and a record infrastructure backlog providing long-term support. He believes the restructuring plan, while costly in the near term, is a strategic move to position Oracle competitively in the evolving cloud market. The recent share sale by the CEO and technical weakness have weighed on sentiment, but do not alter the positive case. Karapetjanc remains constructive, noting that demand tailwinds outweigh transitional pressures. "As long as Oracle builds on its AI cloud momentum and manages restructuring risks, the outlook stays favorable for medium-term investors."

Earlier, analysts noted that Oracle was undergoing a consolidation phase marked by mixed technical momentum and internal restructuring as the company pursued major investments in AI and cloud infrastructure. The latest price action confirms that consolidation has shifted into a more pronounced downside scenario, making the $139 support level critical for gauging additional risk or potential stabilization in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: ORCL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.