ORCL rallies as Swift blockchain integration for bank payment flows drives momentum

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Oracle jumps 7.15% after workforce cuts

Highlights

Oracle has cut staff by double-digit percentages in specific teams to reduce costs and address concerns over cloud and project risks.
Oracle expanded its bank client offerings by integrating with Swift's blockchain ledger for traditional and tokenized payments, and Larry Ellison boosted his pledged collateral shares by 19% to 67 million.
Shares of Oracle gained 7.15% to $142.08, but technical signals remain bearish with price expected to range from $132.31 to $149.31 and sellers likely to dominate in the near term.

Cost cuts and cloud uncertainty drive investor caution amid new initiatives

Oracle has initiated a new round of workforce reductions, with certain teams experiencing double-digit percentage cuts, as reported by Stockstotrade. This restructuring is aimed at lowering costs but also reflects ongoing concerns over cloud growth and project risks, shaping investor sentiment around the company's near-term trajectory. In parallel, Oracle's integration with Swift's blockchain ledger, according to Prnewswire, expands its offering to banks managing both traditional and tokenized payments, positioning the firm for future enterprise adoption. Additionally, Finance Yahoo noted that Larry Ellison increased his pledged Oracle collateral shares by 19% to 67 million, a move highlighting continued executive financial alignment.

Bearish momentum persists despite oversold signals and mixed oscillator readings

On the daily chart, ORCL is above the MA-20 at $135.96, while the MA-50 sits at $142.30 and the MA-200 remains higher at $164.07. Immediate support is present at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $138.44. MACD and ADX present strong bearish signals, and RSI at 31.26 along with CCI and Bull/Bear Power indicate oversold conditions and ongoing seller dominance. Stochastic RSI shows a potential short-term buy signal, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not confirm a directional trend.

Downside risk dominates as range-bound trading persists

Over the next two to three sessions, ORCL is likely to fluctuate within a $132.31–$149.31 volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of further upside is 35%, while downside risk dominates with a 65% chance, making a near-term reversal less likely. The base case sees the stock remain range-bound unless support at $138.44 fails or resistance at $149.31 is breached. A breakout above the upper band could target higher resistance, while failure of support could expose the lower end of the projected range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Oracle’s latest rally as fragile in light of ongoing workforce reductions and mixed technicals. He notes that while integration with Swift’s blockchain highlights long-term innovation, strong bearish signals and oversold momentum challenge the current upside. Kharitonov remains skeptical unless $149.31 is reclaimed decisively. "Base case is range-bound; unless Oracle breaks above $149.31 or loses $138.44 support, I stay defensive on further moves."

Earlier, analysts noted that Oracle faced persistent technical and operational headwinds, with downside risks dominating its near-term outlook. The current analysis reinforces this cautious stance as new workforce reductions and continued technical weakness highlight $138.44 as a key support level investors should closely monitor for potential further downside.

Source of Data: ORCL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.