Google attempts recovery as lower yields ease pressure
GOOGL is trading around $342 on October 2 and is attempting to recover after a weak first half of the week. On the 4-hour chart, the stock remains within a fairly wide range of roughly $335–350, with the $340–342 area currently acting as its midpoint.
283.13
326.23
The price remains below the long-term moving average around $355–357 and has so far failed to regain firm control above the $347–350 zone.
Weak labor data ease pressure from yields
Today, the broader backdrop for Alphabet became noticeably more favorable following a weak U.S. labor market report. In September, nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000 compared with around 90,000 expected by the market, while the August figure was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.1% month over month and 3.0% year over year. This combination of data significantly reduced expectations for a Fed rate hike as early as October and triggered renewed demand for U.S. Treasuries.
For GOOGL, the move in yields is particularly important. After the recent surge at the long end of the curve, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield pulled back to around 5.15–5.20% today, while the 2-year yield declined to roughly 4.72–4.73%.
Lower risk-free yields reduce valuation pressure on large technology companies and have already helped Nasdaq outperform the broader market. However, yields remain very high by historical standards, so it is still too early to say that this risk has fully disappeared for Alphabet.
AI remains key growth driver
At the corporate level, AI remains the key driver. This week, Google introduced Gemini 4 Argon, with a focus on coding, cybersecurity, and complex professional tasks, while also using aggressive API pricing to compete with other leading models.
For Alphabet, the main issue is not simply the launch of another model, but its further integration into Search, Cloud, and agent-based products, as these are the areas expected to justify the company’s heavy investment in AI infrastructure.
Regulation also remains an additional factor: Google is simultaneously challenging an EU requirement to provide competitors, including AI services, with access to certain search data, citing privacy and security risks.
$350–360 remains main resistance zone
In the short term, the combination of a weaker labor market and lower yields is supportive for GOOGL, but the bulls’ inability to break through resistance around $350–360 points to their weakness and leaves the risk of a break below $330 and a decline toward $320–310 in place.
As I noted in the article Google slips back toward range lows as yields pressure tech valuations, buying opportunities may emerge on further weakness.
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