Coinbase misses revenue targets for third quarter: COIN remains under pressure

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Coinbase drops 5.07% to $156.11 today

Highlights

Coinbase stock has missed revenue expectations for three consecutive quarters, with revenue falling 18.5% year-over-year.
Regulatory pressures rose as Coinbase Ireland Limited agreed to a $3.6 million settlement for prior customer-fund and outsourcing oversight breaches.
COIN/USD trades below key technical averages with strong seller control, an expected range of $148.49 to $165.35, and high probability of further downside.

Revenue misses and regulatory fines drive persistent bearish sentiment

Coinbase has missed revenue expectations for three consecutive quarters, pointing to sustained operational challenges and growing uncertainty over its earnings outlook. The most recent quarter saw revenue decline by 18.5% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing difficulties in rebuilding top-line momentum and undermining expectations for a near-term rebound. Regulatory risk has also increased: Coinbase Ireland Limited agreed to pay a $3.6 million settlement to the Central Bank of Ireland, following admitted past breaches of customer-fund safeguards and outsourcing oversight, according to Tokenpost. These issues have contributed to persistent negative sentiment surrounding the stock.

Negative momentum and mixed oscillators deepen downside risk

COIN remains suppressed against key technical benchmarks, with price closing below MA-20 ($170.79), MA-50 ($172.93), and MA-200 ($180.49). The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $172.01 and now acts as notable resistance. Momentum is skewed negative, as MACD and ADX reflect strengthened selling activity; RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all signal an oversold backdrop dominated by sellers. However, Stoch RSI has flipped to a strong buy, revealing a notable divergence among oscillators. The recent session closed at $156.11 after a negative gap of 7.81%, finishing near session lows with low volatility, which aligns with persistent downside confirmed by the Awesome Oscillator. While oscillators are mixed, the technical profile as a whole favors continued caution.

Further declines likely without breakout above resistance

In the coming sessions, COIN is likely to trade between $148.49 and $165.35, with a high probability of further downside and limited chances of a sustained rebound. If bulls are able to regain ground above $172.01, a move toward the upper end of the expected range could be triggered. Should prices fall below $148.49, the risk of an accelerated pullback grows considerably. Otherwise, consolidation near current levels is the most probable scenario.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes the recent combination of weak earnings results and heightened regulatory risk has put continued pressure on Coinbase. He sees sentiment as persistently negative, with both fundamentals and technicals signaling caution in the near term. Market anticipation ahead of the next earnings report could further amplify volatility. "A clear catalyst is needed for COIN to break out of its current bearish structure, but until then, disciplined risk management remains essential."

Earlier, analysts noted that Coinbase faced continued downward pressure amid regulatory scrutiny and unfavorable technical momentum. The latest developments, including further revenue deterioration and confirmation of regulatory settlements, reinforce downside risk and make a break below $148.49 the primary level to monitor in the days ahead.

Source of Data: COIN Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.