Nvidia shares support comes into focus after a stretched decline: weekly analysis

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Nvidia falls 2.85% this week

Highlights

Nvidia stock dropped 2.85% over the past week to $204.98, sitting at its 200-day moving average support.
Technical indicators are oversold with high volatility, indicating selling exhaustion and possible near-term rebound risk.
The expected trading range for the week is $196.81 to $213.14, with a 76% probability of further decline if support fails.

Regulatory, margin, and geopolitical risks intensify despite earnings and AI expansion

Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings for the quarter ended August 26, 2026, with an EPS of $2.22, beating analyst expectations according to Public.com. The company has increased its supply obligations to $279 billion and faces rising off-balance-sheet commitments, potentially raising margin risk, as reported by Seeking Alpha. Nvidia's new $3 billion investment in Meta expands its AI partnership, and the proposed $12.93 billion acquisition of Hugging Face is under examination by the U.S. Department of Justice over competition concerns, according to Yahoo Finance. Ongoing regulatory and political scrutiny, including a reported Chinese espionage attempt targeting CEO Jensen Huang, continues to raise concerns about NVDA's exposure to geopolitical and regulatory risks.

Oversold signals raise rebound risk as MACD confirms weekly bearish momentum

The daily chart shows a sharp move lower without a sustained trend, as volatility picked up to 9.08% this week. Both CCI and Stochastic RSI are in oversold territory, with CCI at -141.76 and Stoch RSI at 0, suggesting possible selling exhaustion and rebound risk. However, the MACD remains in sell mode, highlighting bearish momentum. The nearest support sits at $204.38, while the key resistance is $219.18, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $221.98 acting as an additional resistance level.

Consolidation expected next week with bias tied to 200-day moving average

Over the coming trading week, the expected range is $196.81 to $213.14, with a 24% probability of an increase and a 76% probability of a decrease. The base case is consolidation within this range, centered on the 200-day moving average. A move above resistance at $219.18 would shift focus to potential upside, while a drop below support at $204.38 could accelerate declines toward the lower end of the range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that shares of NVIDIA are trading near $205 after losing almost 3% this week. Sellers remain in control, yet signals of selling exhaustion are visible with oversold daily indicators. Kharitonov points out that robust earnings and expanded AI partnerships offer some support, but he is critical of rising margin risk and regulatory scrutiny over the Hugging Face acquisition and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite sharp moves, daily momentum indicators — with CCI at -141.76 and Stoch RSI at 0 — suggest rebound risk, though the MACD keeps the bias negative. The base case is consolidation between $196.81 and $213.14, watching for a shift above resistance at $219.18 or a break below $204.38. "Given weak technical momentum and mounting fundamental risks, I prefer a defensive stance until Nvidia shares reclaim critical resistance levels," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia’s long-term outlook remained supported by persistent demand for AI infrastructure despite supply chain constraints and geopolitical uncertainty. The current setup introduces new regulatory and margin risks, so traders should closely monitor $204.38 as a critical support level that, if breached, could lead to further downside within the established range.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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