NEM climbs nearly 4% after record earnings and robust shareholder returns

Traders Union
All News
Stocks
Newmont rises 3.81% today to $110.67

Highlights

Newmont reported record adjusted third-quarter earnings and reaffirmed 2026 gold production guidance at 5.26 million ounces.
The company holds $8.8 billion in cash and $12.8 billion in liquidity, distributing $1.9 billion to shareholders since the last call.
Shares of Newmont trade below key moving averages amid negative momentum readings, with a forecast five-day range of $104.92 to $115.39.

Record earnings drive inflows as liquidity and guidance fuel investor optimism

Newmont reported record adjusted third-quarter earnings and maintained its 2026 gold production guidance at 5.26 million ounces. The company finished September with $8.8 billion in cash and $12.8 billion in total liquidity, distributing $1.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks since the last earnings call. Several institutional investors, including Summit Global Investments and One Way Holdings LLC, acquired sizable new positions, and the board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share, payable December 21, 2025. Growth projects at Tanami and Red Chris remain on track, with a final investment decision for the Block Cave project at Red Chris expected in early 2027.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Newmont’s bounce as fragile despite record earnings and fresh institutional positions. He notes the price remains below all key moving averages, suggesting ongoing selling pressure across timeframes. Technical momentum signals are firmly negative, with MACD, ADX, and deeply oversold RSI and CCI underscoring bearish sentiment. He remains critical of the upside after today’s gap, seeing it as a short-lived reaction against a prevailing negative trend. "The combination of ongoing seller control and weak momentum makes any sustained recovery unlikely in the near term."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights Newmont’s strong liquidity and robust shareholder returns. He emphasizes that institutional inflows and progress on key projects reflect confidence in the business model. The bullish structure remains intact, with potential for further growth if the stock can break above resistance. Karapetjanc remains constructive on the forward outlook, focusing on long-term value. "If the price clears the $112.44 barrier, I see scope for a move higher as market fundamentals back further upside."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, views the setup defensively in light of dominant sell signals and poor momentum. He stresses that recent institutional buying has not offset strong downside momentum, as indicated by the oversold readings and negative intraday signals. Dele notes high volatility and large downside probabilities, which overshadow the day’s initial gains. "Downside risk remains elevated, and any bounce should be treated with skepticism until momentum shifts materially."

Oversold technicals highlight weak momentum despite intraday recovery attempt

Newmont is trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages ($114.39, $120.63, and $112.44 respectively), which signals sustained seller pressure in the short, medium, and long term. The nearest resistance is at $112.44 and the immediate support is near the current high at $108, with the longer-term MA-50 alignment indicating a bullish structure despite present weakness. Momentum readings remain negative as both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX) signal a lack of bullish momentum and trend strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is low at 36.19, while Stochastic RSI is at 0, both in oversold territory; the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) also shows deeply oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at -4.83 indicates sellers dominate intraday momentum, reinforcing the oversold setup. Newmont is up $4.06 or 3.81%, opening with an upside gap of $0.68 (0.64%), and is trading near today’s high, with intraday volatility at 3.33%. There is strength toward session highs after the open, yet this intraday recovery is in direct contrast to weak momentum signals, highlighting a possible short-term bounce within an overall negative bias.

Earlier, analysts noted that Newmont benefited from strong gold prices, which helped offset declining production and supported robust earnings. The current technical setup now underscores the importance of watching the $108 support level, as a decisive move below it could increase the risk of a test toward the lower end of the forecast range.

Source of Data: NEM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.