Nvidia stock falls below $200 as AI infrastructure risks pressure sentiment
Strong AI-chip demand is colliding with supply constraints and growing uncertainty around data-center expansion. For Nvidia, holding $195 could determine whether the latest sell-off turns into a rebound toward the 200-day SMA.
194.90
209.95
Bloomberg reported that Chinese technology companies, including Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance, have ordered around 6 million Nvidia RTX Pro 5500 chips worth roughly $70 billion. However, buyers are expected to receive only about 1% of the ordered volume over the next four months because of limited production capacity.
Political risks are also adding pressure to the semiconductor sector. The Democratic victory in the U.S. midterm elections has increased the likelihood of tighter requirements for new data-center construction. That could slow the expansion of AI infrastructure and, over time, affect demand for Nvidia chips.
Holding $195 remains key to Nvidia's potential recovery
Nvidia stock partially followed the scenario outlined previously. The price tested the $207–210 target zone, but during the second half of yesterday’s session it fell below the psychological $200 support level, reaching $199.68.
The risk of another move down toward $195 remains high. Even so, if a doji candle forms on the daily chart today on elevated trading volume, it would provide the first signal of a potential rebound.
RSI (14) is close to oversold territory, so a stabilization above $195 would increase the likelihood of a short-term recovery toward the 200-day SMA near $204.70.
A sustained break below $195 would invalidate this scenario. In that case, Nvidia stock could extend the correction toward $190.
Nvidia faces heightened uncertainty ahead of quarterly earnings
Demand for AI chips remains strong, but investors are becoming increasingly concerned about potential restrictions on data-center construction and the eventual returns on large-scale AI investment.
The next major event is Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report, scheduled for November 17. The results should offer a clearer indication of whether current market concerns are consistent with the underlying state of the company’s business.
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