Will Oracle stock hold $109.67 support amid weak momentum and recent news events?

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Oracle drops 5.92% today to $116.41

Highlights

Oracle stock fell 5.92% after the company canceled a $7 billion chip-leasing deal with Tencent due to US regulatory concerns.
Oracle completed a $20 billion equity and debt raise, increasing liquidity but bringing near-term dilution risk for shareholders.
Shares trade below key moving averages with bearish momentum, with a projected range of $109.67 to $123.75 and high probability of further downside.

Revenue loss and dilution risk as major deal canceled, capital raised

Oracle Corporation's cancellation of a $7 billion chip-leasing agreement with Tencent, following concerns from U.S. officials, removed a significant cross-border contract and limited potential revenue streams, according to Gurufocus. This action likely weighed on sentiment due to heightened regulatory scrutiny and loss of growth opportunity. Additionally, Oracle completed a major capital raise of approximately $20 billion through equity and debt offerings, as reported by Gurufocus, boosting liquidity but increasing near-term dilution risk for shareholders. Both factors contributed to today's negative price reaction.

Sustained technical weakness as momentum and resistance pressure mount

On the hourly chart, ORCL is trading below the MA-20 ($124.02), MA-50 ($129.83), and remains well under the MA-200 ($155.99), with the Ichimoku Kijun at $125.31 acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators are negative, as both MACD and ADX signal a sell bias. RSI remains in the neutral zone, while Stochastic RSI and CCI are both oversold, suggesting potential for short-term selling exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power is slightly negative at -0.1, implying marginal seller control during the session, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral.

Downside favored as volatility band narrows and rebound odds drop

In the short term, the expected price range for ORCL over the next 2–3 trading days is $109.67 to $123.75, defining the volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of further downside remains very high, with a low likelihood of a sustained rebound in this window. The base scenario anticipates stabilization within this range. A bullish case could develop only if the price breaks above immediate resistance at $125.31, triggering a short-covering rally, while a drop below $109.67 would open the path for additional declines.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views the current move in Oracle as a direct reflection of negative news and weak technicals. He believes the canceled Tencent deal and large capital raise signal increased regulatory risk and dilution pressure. Downside momentum is likely to persist until key resistance at $125.31 is reclaimed. "Base case remains consolidation between $109.67 and $123.75 — any bullish scenario only starts if Oracle breaks firmly above $125.31."

Previously it was reported that Oracle’s large capital raise had introduced elevated risks tied to increased leverage and dilution, while technical signals indicated persistent weakness. The current analysis reinforces concerns about downside momentum, with heightened volatility suggesting that traders should closely monitor $109.67 as the next potential support.

Source of Data: ORCL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.