Qualcomm stock outlook: Downward momentum persists after sharp decline

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Qualcomm drops 11.24% to $153.73

Highlights

Qualcomm reported a 26% year-over-year drop in handset chip revenue to $5.14 billion, causing negative forward earnings expectations.
Revenue diversification came from growth in automotive and data center businesses, and a multi-year 5G hardware agreement with SpaceX’s Starlink Mobile.
Shares of Qualcomm fell sharply to $153.73, with bearish momentum and expected price range of $147.62 to $159.82 over the next several days.

Margin risk escalates as core segment revenues falter despite new deals

Qualcomm reported a 26% year-over-year decline in handset chip revenue to $5.14 billion, which signaled ongoing weakness in its smartphone processor segment and directly weighed on forward earnings expectations, according to Qz. While the company's fiscal fourth-quarter results exceeded analyst projections for both revenue and profit, the weaker outlook for the following quarter shifted investor focus from near-term outperformance toward concerns over future demand. Progress in automotive and data center businesses helped diversify revenue streams, and a newly announced multi-year agreement to supply 5G hardware for SpaceX’s Starlink Mobile, as reported by Tipranks, highlighted potential for longer-term growth. Overall, near-term margin pressure and the pronounced revenue drop in Qualcomm's primary business segment explain the heightened negative sentiment in the current session.

Bearish momentum persists as QCOM trades under key resistance bands

On the technical side, QCOM is trading well below its MA-20 at $165.14 and MA-50 at $172.38 on the hourly chart, as well as under the MA-200 at $169.6 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at $161.57 defines immediate resistance. Momentum signals remain bearish overall with MACD on Strong Sell and ADX aligned with a Sell bias. RSI is neutral, but both Stoch RSI and CCI have entered oversold territory, indicating possible exhaustion in the recent selling cycle. Bull/Bear Power is negative, pointing to seller dominance intraday, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral.

Downside favored as recovery odds diminish below resistance

In the short term, QCOM is expected to fluctuate within the $147.62 to $159.82 range. The probability of a recovery move remains low, with further downside likely unless the $161.57 resistance is reclaimed. A bearish scenario unfolds if support at $147.62 fails, while any technical rebound would remain contained within the defined volatility band relative to current levels.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees current sentiment around Qualcomm as negatively skewed due to the sharp drop in handset chip revenue and a weak near-term outlook. He notes that strong results in automotive and new partnerships bring diversification, but they cannot offset core segment weakness for now. Technical momentum remains bearish with resistance at $161.57 and a lower trading band between $147.62 and $159.82. However, Karapetjanc believes the longer-term opportunities in new markets and technology partnerships may provide support down the line. "Despite near-term volatility and sector headwinds, I remain constructive on Qualcomm’s ability to recover once sentiment stabilizes and demand rebounds in its primary markets."

Previously it was reported that Qualcomm faced ongoing technical and fundamental headwinds despite some growth in its automotive segment, with analysts maintaining a cautious outlook on the stock. The current technical configuration and sharply lower revenue in the core handset chip business reinforce this negative bias, making the $147.62 support level an important threshold for assessing further downside risk in the near term.

Source of Data: QCOM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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