Housing markets, macro trends, and economic commentary by Conor Sen
Conor Sen: Federal Reserve skip could signal misleading shift
Conor Sen described the possibility that a Federal Reserve skip at its upcoming meeting could represent a “false fall.” Sen’s comment suggests the pause may be misinterpreted as a more ...
Financial discussion shifts to financing needs and credit spreads, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen described a shift in finance discussions, noting that arguments from finance professionals seem more compelling now that conversation is focused on external financing needs and credit ...
Conor Sen: Tech companies may seek additional funding for capex amid tighter financial conditions
Conor Sen suggested that as financial conditions tighten, technology companies may respond by raising more money to fund capital expenditures. Sen questioned whether this approach will continue, ...
Efforts focus on slowing artificial intelligence boom, Conor Sen writes
Markets and the Federal Reserve are attempting to cool the artificial intelligence boom. Conor Sen highlighted this development in a recent ...
Conor Sen: S&P on Hyperliquid frequently moves at 6 p.m. Sunday
Conor Sen commented that each time he checks the S&P on Hyperliquid over the weekend, the market tends to move at 6 p.m. on ...
AI stock declines could benefit housing market, Conor Sen writes
Conor Sen said the housing market should welcome the recent selloff in artificial intelligence stocks. No additional details on this viewpoint or its implications were provided in the ...
Conor Sen: JPMorgan CFO says consumer remains healthy due to strong labor market
The chief financial officer of JPMorgan stated that the consumer is currently very healthy, mainly because of a healthy labor market. Conor Sen shared this assessment, quoting the JPMorgan CFO's ...
Stable corporate and market growth limits AI shift, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen suggests that most of corporate America lacks motivation to fundamentally restructure their businesses around artificial intelligence as long as nominal GDP, corporate profits, and stock ...
Conor Sen: Investing more in stocks may not always raise net worth
Conor Sen questions the commonly held belief that increased saving and investing in stocks would necessarily lead to a much higher net worth for individuals. Sen raises the point that if ...
Labor market narrows and relies on AI expansion, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen highlights that while the labor market has strengthened, it has also become more concentrated and dependent on the expansion of artificial intelligence. He draws a parallel between ...
Conor Sen: Fed signals more than one potential rate hike ahead
Conor Sen raises questions about the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent signaling around interest rate hikes. He observes that while the Fed and Governor Waller are suggesting the possibility of more ...
Fed must look outside housing to slow growth, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's efforts to slow the U.S. economy, stating that there is little room left for further impact within the housing sector. He suggests that any ...
Conor Sen: AI buildout linked to external financing for recent months
Conor Sen observes that the artificial intelligence buildout has depended on external financing for the past three to four months. He adds that higher interest rates and tighter financial ...
New Sarbox or Dodd-Frank could emerge if crisis deepens, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen raises the question of what kind of major regulations, similar to Sarbanes-Oxley, Dodd-Frank, or the Volcker Rule, might be created if the current situation deteriorates. Sen's comment ...
Conor Sen: JOLTS data in 2022 proven more reliable than sentiment indicators
Conor Sen comments on the reliability of the JOLTS data in 2022. While there was considerable skepticism about its value at the time, Sen observes that JOLTS has generally remained more useful as ...
Economic gains are not widely felt by Americans, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen observes that although economic growth has accelerated over the past two quarters, most Americans do not perceive this improvement. He points out that there is often a disconnect ...
Conor Sen: Consumer strength grows despite energy and interest rate headwinds
Conor Sen observes that, in nominal terms, consumer spending appears to be getting stronger. He notes that this improvement comes even as consumers are feeling the impact of higher energy prices ...
Interest rates rise as hyperscaler FCF turns negative with $200 billion yearly AI capex, Conor Sen argues
Conor Sen questions the value of the most recent $200 billion per year in AI capital expenditures. He observes that this spending has shifted hyperscaler free cash flow from positive to negative, ...
Conor Sen: Current U.S. macro environment is unique with rising rates and strong labor market
Conor Sen observes that finding a past parallel for the current U.S. macro environment is difficult. He points to a combination of low unemployment, a strengthening labor market, elevated and ...
Aggregate economic indicators are running too hot, Conor Sen warns
Conor Sen raises concerns about current economic conditions, noting that aggregate data is moving at a rapid pace and cyclical risks appear to be increasing. Sen emphasizes that the direction of ...
Conor Sen: Markets anticipate Fed’s rate path to achieve 2 percent inflation
Conor Sen discusses the current dynamic between markets and the Federal Reserve. He notes that market participants closely monitor how committed the Fed is to reaching its 2 percent inflation ...
