Housing markets, macro trends, and economic commentary by Conor Sen
Mortgage rates touched 6% in late February, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen looks back at market activity over this year and highlights the significance of the @citrini essay. He attributes the movement in markets, specifically the rise in mortgage rates to 6% ...
Conor Sen: Hyperscalers face rising debt and equity needs as returns lag
Conor Sen highlights a shift in the financial landscape for hyperscalers, noting that these companies now need to raise large amounts of debt and equity. This development comes at a time when ...
San Francisco and Austin lead EQR apartment performance this year, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen states that within the EQR apartment portfolio, San Francisco and Austin have been the top-performing markets this year, while Seattle has been the biggest underperformer. The tweet ...
Conor Sen: Government shutdown and freight bottom marked labor market low
Conor Sen observes that the end of the government shutdown and the lowest point in the freight market also coincided with a turning point for the labor market. This assessment highlights the ...
Falling gas prices and rising economic activity may influence U.S. polling, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen considers whether recent polling results over the past couple of months might be influenced by declining gas prices and an improving U.S. economy. He acknowledges the possibility that ...
Conor Sen: Hyperscaler stock moves linked to market views on memory spending
Conor Sen observes the cyclical relationship between hyperscaler stock movements and memory spending. According to Sen, declines in hyperscaler stock prices are often driven by increased memory ...
Micron expected to reach Apple level free cash flow in 2027, Conor Sen projects
Conor Sen highlights that Micron is now projected to generate roughly the same free cash flow as Apple in 2027. This comparison indicates significant expected growth in Micron's financial ...
Conor Sen: AI investment may shift priorities for workers and companies
Conor Sen suggests that typically, a declining stock price signals trouble for workers at a company. However, Sen raises the question of whether heavy spending on AI capital expenditures, ...
City tax hike applies to 7 percent of bills, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen explains that the proposed property tax increase applies only to the portion paid to the city, not to other entities like schools. According to Sen, this city share makes up roughly 7 ...
Conor Sen: Municipalities weigh job impact of corporate relocation incentives
Conor Sen observes that it is standard for municipalities to offer financial incentives to companies that relocate, in hopes of creating jobs. Sen points out a new dynamic as cities assess how ...
CPI data to be covered tomorrow, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen discusses the current state of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve, mentioning a forthcoming conversation with Irving Swisher. Sen also notes that Skanda will join to cover consumer ...
Conor Sen: Token spend of $75,000 may replace $125,000 worker
Conor Sen raises questions about the potential for companies to use tokens as replacements for higher-cost employees. He suggests that spending $75,000 on tokens may allow a business to replace ...
A stronger labor market could hurt bottleneck stocks, Conor Sen argues
Conor Sen highlights that an improvement in the labor market could be bearish for bottleneck stocks. He suggests that if employment trends pick up, it could negatively impact the performance of ...
Conor Sen: AI stock trends differ from late 1990s tech market
Conor Sen draws a distinction between current AI stock trends and past technology market cycles. He argues that the better comparison for today’s AI rally is semiconductor stocks in the late ...
San Francisco home price prediction called flawed, Conor Sen argues
Conor Sen questions the reliability of Zillow's latest housing forecasts. Sen specifically criticizes the projection that San Francisco home prices will decline, suggesting there may be a flaw in ...
Conor Sen: Full-year sports work stoppage could severely impact media rights values
Conor Sen highlights that while players may not have traditional leverage, a full-year work stoppage in sports could significantly damage the value of future media rights deals and hurt franchise ...
Identifying future standout investments beyond AI remains a question, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen raises the question of what investment opportunities in 2026, outside of artificial intelligence, will be seen as obvious in retrospect. He draws parallels to historical periods when ...
Conor Sen: Market should focus on 50-100bps hiking cycle odds
Conor Sen suggests that analyzing the odds of a single rate hike over the next 9 to 12 months may be less useful than considering the likelihood of a broader 50 to 100 basis points hiking cycle. ...
OpenAI IPO plans and Anthropic financials appear linked, Conor Sen notes
Conor Sen highlights the timing of OpenAI's reported interest in pursuing an IPO as early as September and a Wall Street Journal article revealing updated financials for Anthropic on the same day. ...
Conor Sen: Market mechanics see semiconductors move lower as index stocks gain
Conor Sen highlights a recent market dynamic where gains in major index stocks such as MCO, MSCI, and SPGI appear linked to declines in semiconductor stocks. Sen suggests this reflects how ...
A tech bust could impact municipal budgets, Conor Sen warns
Conor Sen points out that while some coastal liberals may be critical of growing tech wealth, they might be even more concerned about the potential consequences of a downturn in the technology ...
