Quantitative Investing and Portfolio Strategy by Adam Butler
Adam Butler: Suggests considering a managed futures trend stack
Adam Butler recommended that people consider whether they have a managed futures trend stack or consider adding more exposure. Butler posed the question and suggestion for evaluation in a recent ...
Progressive tax increases and step-up basis elimination are primary tools now, Adam Butler argues
Adam Butler suggests that significant austerity measures would be self-defeating in the current environment. He emphasizes that highly progressive tax hikes, along with eliminating the step-up ...
Adam Butler: U.S. capital markets as real-world superintelligence experiment
Adam Butler draws a parallel between artificial intelligence risks and the functioning of U.S. capital markets. He states that a real-life, large-scale experiment of superintelligence driven ...
Precision often misleading in financial time series analysis, Adam Butler notes
Adam Butler observes that extensive experience with financial time series can lead to skepticism about the widespread belief in resolving reality to fine decimal points. He suggests that the ...
Adam Butler: Private markets seek profit from intergenerational support systems
Adam Butler argues that intergenerational support systems limit private markets’ ability to extract value for profit. He observes that markets typically develop ways to quantify or monetize ...
AI and hyperscaler ecosystem represents nearly half of U.S. equity market cap, Adam Butler notes
Adam Butler outlines the bear case for the entire artificial intelligence and hyperscaler ecosystem. According to Butler, these companies now account for just under half of U.S. equity market ...
Adam Butler: Halting oil production and selling existing reserves could boost major oil company margins
Adam Butler suggests that if oil producers stopped all exploration, drilling, production, and refining, and instead sold only the oil already in storage and transit, it would significantly ...
Fable 5.1 delegation to Hermes agents surpasses Terra or Luna for finance tasks, Adam Butler notes
Adam Butler highlights improvements in quantitative finance experiments by utilizing Fable 5.1 in Claude Code as a program manager that delegates to Hermes agents running Deepseek-4.1-flash. ...
Adam Butler: Western economic analysis may misinterpret China’s policy choices
Adam Butler raises concerns about the tendency of Western economic analysis to judge China’s refusal to align with recommended equilibrium models as a policy failure. He suggests instead that ...
Stock valuations fueled by digital ad monetization, Adam Butler argues
Adam Butler draws attention to the significant rise in stock prices over the past decade. Butler attributes this boom to the ability of companies like META, GOOGL, and SNAP, along with TikTok and ...
Adam Butler: Community tokens function more as collectibles than as a store of value
Adam Butler questions the practical role of community tokens outside of scenarios involving collapsing states, where global regulations could trigger universal gold convertibility. Butler ...
Large USD reserve holders shift to gold due to U.S. financial leverage, Adam Butler notes
Adam Butler argues that tactics used against entities like the IRGC reinforce concerns among major USD reserve holders about their financial ties to the U.S. being used as tools for coercion. He ...
Adam Butler: Fiscal policy worsened inflation after COVID-19
Adam Butler argues that some advocates of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) failed to acknowledge the role of excessive fiscal policy in driving up inflation after the COVID-19 pandemic. He challenges ...
Allocating 15 percent to gold can be optimal for investors, Adam Butler notes
Adam Butler suggests that a portfolio allocation of 15 percent gold is near optimal for many investors over the next 5 to 10 years. He also shares that his own strategic allocation to gold is ...
Adam Butler: Calls for accountability over 2008 financial crisis payouts
Adam Butler questions how the political system might have changed if those responsible for financial frauds and schemes during the 2008 global financial crisis had been held accountable, instead ...
Private equity firms use insurance floats for investment, Adam Butler notes
Adam Butler challenges comparisons between current private equity strategies and those used by Warren Buffett. He explains that while Buffett effectively used insurance portfolio floats as a smart ...
Adam Butler: Looser securities regulations reflect fundraising challenges for issuers
Adam Butler suggests that financial regulators typically do not relax rules and disclosure requirements for securities unless issuers are facing difficulties raising funds through standard ...
MMT proposes using taxes and investment to control inflation, Adam Butler notes
Adam Butler argues that the tools of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) are not the main issue in addressing inflation. He explains that MMT recommends lowering inflation by progressively taxing ...
Adam Butler: Economic measures like GDP have inverted life’s true priorities
Adam Butler critically examines how economic frameworks have shifted priorities, with the economy now treated as the end goal rather than a means to enhance life. He points out that economists ...
Fed forecasts show negative correlation to outcomes, Adam Butler notes
Adam Butler highlights that Federal Reserve forecasts for interest rates just six months ahead have shown a negative correlation with the actual interest rate outcomes. According to Butler, this ...
Adam Butler: Private retirement funding reduces sustainable spending rates by 25 percent
Adam Butler estimates that private retirement funding, as opposed to pooled arrangements, reduces sustainable spending rates in retirement by approximately 25 percent for individuals with the same ...
