Global Economy and Monetary Policy by Greg Ip
Greg Ip: Health insurance premiums have risen 5 percent and contributions even more
Health insurance premiums have increased by 5 percent, with contributions rising even more. Greg Ip described this as a sleeper inflation issue, adding that such increases could help explain ...
Gradual policy moves make sense when not behind curve, Fed's Barkin notes
Federal Reserve official Barkin stated that a gradual approach to monetary policy is appropriate when the central bank is not significantly behind the curve. Greg Ip highlighted Barkin's ...
Greg Ip: Interest rates can affect all areas of the economy according to Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh stated that interest rates "get in all the cracks," referencing a point made by former governor Jeremy Stein. Greg Ip agreed with this view, adding that the Federal Reserve is capable ...
Long-run neutral U.S. rate estimated at 4.3%, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip stated that the ACM term premium model estimates the long-run, or neutral, U.S. interest rate at 4.3%, which is higher than the current rate of 3.88% and the FOMC’s own long-run ...
Greg Ip: Price-sensitive investors drive large moves in U.S. Treasury yields
A significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields occurred today. Greg Ip stated that the increasing presence of price-sensitive investors in the market can explain both large upward and downward ...
Core CPI moves higher while core PCE drops, Greg Ip notes
The latest data indicate that core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is increasing, while core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is moving lower. Greg Ip described how the revised methodology had ...
Greg Ip: Elderly wealth rises between 2022 and 2025 as youth wealth declines
Greg Ip observes that a recent Federal Reserve report shows a significant increase in wealth for older Americans between 2022 and 2025, while younger generations saw a decline. He emphasizes ...
French president's debt cancellation plan could impact bond yields, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip highlights the possibility that the intention of a French president to cancel France's debt held by the European Central Bank could be influencing French bond yields. He points to ...
Greg Ip: Final demand for computers and software makes up 4.4% of GDP
Greg Ip highlights that the final demand for computers and software, as measured by business fixed investment and personal consumption expenditures, accounts for 4.4% of GDP. He describes this ...
U.S. nominal GDP and income growth fastest since 2006 apart from pandemic years, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip highlights that nominal gross domestic product and income growth in the U.S. are at their fastest pace since 2006, excluding the pandemic years. He points out that a simple regression ...
Greg Ip: Plaza Accord not forced on Japan and did not cause lost decades
Greg Ip challenges common narratives about the Plaza Accord, emphasizing that it was not imposed on Japan and did not cause Japan’s subsequent economic stagnation. He highlights that Japan’s ...
Raising rates can deflate any investment boom, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip recalls that, in 1999, similar arguments were made to Bill Ackman when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. At that time, Silicon Valley claimed that the increase would have little ...
Greg Ip: JPM survey finds clients shift net long after buyback pressure
Greg Ip observes that a recent JPM survey showed clients moving to net long positions, suggesting Bessent's buyback threats may have influenced this behavior. He points out that with clients now ...
Current oil spike outlasts 2022 surge, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip observes that the current rise in oil prices has lasted longer than the spike following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He points out that this persistent increase raises the risk ...
Greg Ip: Inflation risk is not reflected in breakeven rate
Greg Ip explains that inflation risk—the possibility inflation may differ from expectations due to factors such as supply shocks or fiscal dominance—is not accounted for in the breakeven rate. ...
Frequent media coverage signals trouble in bond market, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip points out that being invited onto radio shows to discuss the bond market is an indicator of growing concern in the sector. He suggests that increased media focus could signal underlying ...
Greg Ip: Warsh speech seen as hawkish as markets react to FOMC cues
Greg Ip highlights that Warsh's speech addressed confusion from the July FOMC meeting and provided a substantive review of the economy and inflation, taking a detailed look inside PCE data without ...
Treasury historically avoided predicting interest rates in its debt management, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip examines theories around U.S. Treasury debt management. He explains that some, like Bessent and John, suggest Treasury might have superior insight into the future direction of interest ...
Greg Ip: Stan Druckenmiller criticizes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on market intervention
Greg Ip highlights notable criticism by Stan Druckenmiller of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Druckenmiller warns that once markets believe the U.S. Treasury is actively defending a price level, ...
Treasury yields rise and haven status weakens, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip warns that U.S. Treasurys, long seen as the world’s preferred safe asset, are appearing less secure. He observes that their yields are not as low relative to other securities and that, ...
Greg Ip: Top tech firms hold $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI commitments
Greg Ip reports that nine leading technology companies have around $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments, primarily related to artificial intelligence, according to an analysis of ...
