Global Economy and Monetary Policy by Greg Ip
Greg Ip: Elderly wealth rises between 2022 and 2025 as youth wealth declines
Greg Ip observes that a recent Federal Reserve report shows a significant increase in wealth for older Americans between 2022 and 2025, while younger generations saw a decline. He emphasizes ...
French president's debt cancellation plan could impact bond yields, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip highlights the possibility that the intention of a French president to cancel France's debt held by the European Central Bank could be influencing French bond yields. He points to ...
Greg Ip: Final demand for computers and software makes up 4.4% of GDP
Greg Ip highlights that the final demand for computers and software, as measured by business fixed investment and personal consumption expenditures, accounts for 4.4% of GDP. He describes this ...
U.S. nominal GDP and income growth fastest since 2006 apart from pandemic years, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip highlights that nominal gross domestic product and income growth in the U.S. are at their fastest pace since 2006, excluding the pandemic years. He points out that a simple regression ...
Greg Ip: Plaza Accord not forced on Japan and did not cause lost decades
Greg Ip challenges common narratives about the Plaza Accord, emphasizing that it was not imposed on Japan and did not cause Japan’s subsequent economic stagnation. He highlights that Japan’s ...
Raising rates can deflate any investment boom, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip recalls that, in 1999, similar arguments were made to Bill Ackman when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. At that time, Silicon Valley claimed that the increase would have little ...
Greg Ip: JPM survey finds clients shift net long after buyback pressure
Greg Ip observes that a recent JPM survey showed clients moving to net long positions, suggesting Bessent's buyback threats may have influenced this behavior. He points out that with clients now ...
Current oil spike outlasts 2022 surge, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip observes that the current rise in oil prices has lasted longer than the spike following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He points out that this persistent increase raises the risk ...
Greg Ip: Inflation risk is not reflected in breakeven rate
Greg Ip explains that inflation risk—the possibility inflation may differ from expectations due to factors such as supply shocks or fiscal dominance—is not accounted for in the breakeven rate. ...
Frequent media coverage signals trouble in bond market, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip points out that being invited onto radio shows to discuss the bond market is an indicator of growing concern in the sector. He suggests that increased media focus could signal underlying ...
Greg Ip: Warsh speech seen as hawkish as markets react to FOMC cues
Greg Ip highlights that Warsh's speech addressed confusion from the July FOMC meeting and provided a substantive review of the economy and inflation, taking a detailed look inside PCE data without ...
Treasury historically avoided predicting interest rates in its debt management, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip examines theories around U.S. Treasury debt management. He explains that some, like Bessent and John, suggest Treasury might have superior insight into the future direction of interest ...
Greg Ip: Stan Druckenmiller criticizes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on market intervention
Greg Ip highlights notable criticism by Stan Druckenmiller of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Druckenmiller warns that once markets believe the U.S. Treasury is actively defending a price level, ...
Treasury yields rise and haven status weakens, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip warns that U.S. Treasurys, long seen as the world’s preferred safe asset, are appearing less secure. He observes that their yields are not as low relative to other securities and that, ...
Greg Ip: Top tech firms hold $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI commitments
Greg Ip reports that nine leading technology companies have around $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments, primarily related to artificial intelligence, according to an analysis of ...
Fragility in U.S. Treasury market prompts concern over foreign sales, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip reports that concerns over the fragility of the U.S. Treasury market have reached a new level as long-term interest rates rise. He cites Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at ...
Greg Ip: Lower unemployment estimate for 2026 points to higher policy rate path
Greg Ip highlights that Neil Dutta at RenMacLLC suggests a downward revision in the unemployment rate estimate for 2026 to 4.2 percent. According to the commentary, this reduction by 0.1 ...
Fed holds rates steady while stressing inflation goals, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip highlights that the Federal Reserve had valid reasons not to raise interest rates this week. He observes that Warsh, however, did not offer these reasons in his comments and instead ...
Greg Ip: Revalued yuan affects China trade surplus by income shift
Greg Ip discusses how a revalued yuan may reduce China's trade surplus not through direct changes in relative prices, but by shifting income from the export sector to the consumer sector. He ...
Fed policy rules currently prescribe higher rates, Greg Ip notes
Greg Ip points out that the Taylor rule and other policy frameworks referenced in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy report indicate that the federal funds rate should be higher than it ...
Greg Ip: Kevin Warsh avoids discussing rate outlook in central bank communication
Greg Ip points out that Kevin Warsh is unwilling to speak about the future direction of interest rates, often referred to as forward guidance. While this stance is considered understandable by ...
