Global Economics and Macro Analysis by Gregory Daco
Bets on central bank rate hike rise to nearly 40 percent, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco observes that investors have recently increased their wagers that the central bank may raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting. At one point last week, the probability of a rate ...
Gregory Daco: ECB keeps deposit rate steady at 2.25 percent
Gregory Daco reports that the European Central Bank (ECB) has kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25 percent. The ECB's Governing Council is closely monitoring the ongoing Middle East conflict ...
Record high for private-equity assets stuck in zombie funds, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco reports that private-equity assets held in so-called zombie funds have reached an all-time high. Zombie funds refer to investment vehicles that are no longer actively managed but ...
Gregory Daco: FOMC may tighten monetary policy if core inflation rises again
Gregory Daco highlights that if there is another strong reading on core inflation this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near ...
AI-driven demand could trigger U.S. rate hikes, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco reports that Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams has identified artificial intelligence-driven demand as a major factor influencing inflation in the U.S. ...
Gregory Daco: Fed governor discusses limits and flexibility of forward guidance
Gregory Daco reports that Federal Reserve Governor Waller discussed the role of forward guidance in monetary policy transmission. Waller noted that while forward guidance can accelerate how policy ...
Labor market lacks acceleration and broader job growth, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco warns that the labor market is exhibiting stability on the surface but is not reaccelerating. He stresses that while the unemployment rate is low, it should be interpreted with ...
Gregory Daco: U.S. new home sales fall in May as inventory rises
Gregory Daco reports that U.S. housing remains subdued during the spring selling season. New home sales in May dropped 7.4% month-over-month and 6.8% year-over-year, reaching a 580,000 pace, which ...
Inflation accelerates across key periods, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco highlights that inflation accelerated in May 2026, leading to a real income squeeze. He notes that headline inflation reached 6.3% over three months, 5.3% over six months, and 4.1% ...
Gregory Daco: Fed launches five task forces on key policy areas
Gregory Daco outlines that the Federal Reserve is appointing a task force in each of five essential areas tied to monetary policy. These areas include Fed communications, the institution's ...
China retail sales contract while exports and industrial output rise, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco reports that China experienced a contraction in consumer spending in May for the first time since the pandemic, while investment also showed signs of deterioration. Data indicate ...
Gregory Daco: Fed hawkish tone does not signal hike this year
Gregory Daco comments that more hawkish communication from the U.S. Federal Reserve does not necessarily indicate an interest rate hike this year, and he does not believe such a move is warranted. ...
Inflation rises to 4.2 percent in May, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco reports that U.S. headline CPI inflation rose to 4.2 percent in May, marking the highest level since April 2023. Core CPI inflation remained flat at 2.9 percent, up slightly from its ...
Gregory Daco: More households expect worsening financial outlook by May 2026
Gregory Daco reports that a rising number of households foresee a deterioration in their financial situation over the next year. According to recent data, the proportion of households expecting ...
Federal Reserve forward guidance could be rolled back soon, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco reports that Kevin Warsh is expected to overhaul how the Federal Reserve communicates with Wall Street. Several former top officials anticipate that Warsh may begin reversing the ...
Gregory Daco: U.S. ISM manufacturing index hits four-year high in May
Gregory Daco reports that the U.S. ISM manufacturing index climbed to its highest level in four years in May, with key components such as new orders and production showing notable expansion. ...
U.S. GDP rises 1.6 percent in Q1 2026, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco reports that U.S. real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2026 has been revised 0.4 percentage points lower. Quarter-on-quarter, growth reached 1.6 percent, while year-on-year growth ...
Gregory Daco: U.S. household debt delinquency rate steady at 4.8% in Q1 '26
Gregory Daco reports on the New York Federal Reserve's Household Debt & Credit Report for Q1 '26. The U.S. household debt delinquency rate remains flat at 4.8%. New 30-day delinquencies edged ...
Longer-maturity U.S. Treasury yields near decades highs, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco highlights that a surge in longer-maturity U.S. Treasury yields is putting global bond investors in a difficult position. These investors are weighing the opportunity to lock in rates ...
Gregory Daco: Easing wage growth and falling job switcher premium signal income squeeze
Gregory Daco highlights that recent data from the Atlanta Fed point to easing wage growth and a disappearing premium for workers who switch jobs. According to Daco, these changes indicate most ...
Inflation is outpacing real wage growth, Gregory Daco warns
Gregory Daco highlights rising inflation and declining real wages in the U.S. He observes that consumers are increasingly relying on savings, credit, and wealth to cope with reduced purchasing ...
