Global Economics and Macro Analysis by Gregory Daco
Softer compensation growth adds to income erosion, Gregory Daco notes
The U.S. Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, with wage and salary growth at 0.7% and benefits increasing by 0.9%. Gregory Daco said compensation growth has softened, exacerbating ...
Gregory Daco: U.S. GDP rises 3.4% in Q3 as business investment and consumer spending grow
U.S. gross domestic product grew by 3.4% quarter over quarter in the third quarter, with consumer spending up 3.8% and business investment rising 12.7%, led by artificial intelligence and ...
U.S. consumer confidence up 7.5 points in October, Gregory Daco notes
U.S. consumer confidence improved in October, rising by 7.5 points from the previous month, according to data from the Conference Board. Present situation sentiment rose by 8.6 points and ...
Gregory Daco: South Korea GDP grows faster than expected amid AI chip boom
South Korea's economy expanded at a faster pace than anticipated in the third quarter as strong AI-driven chip exports and investment contributed to growth, while consumption shrank. Gregory ...
Fed likely to maintain current rate range at next meeting, Gregory Daco expects
Gregory Daco said he expects the Federal Reserve will keep its federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% at the upcoming FOMC meeting. He added that the following press ...
Gregory Daco: Pending sales of existing U.S. homes fall to record low in September
Pending sales of existing U.S. homes dropped to a record low in September as high mortgage rates continued to dampen demand. Gregory Daco reported the decline, linking it to the ongoing impact of ...
China's Q3 GDP rises 4.5% with exports strong, Gregory Daco notes
China's gross domestic product expanded by 4.5% year over year in the third quarter, as a boom in exports further widened the divide with a struggling consumer economy. Gregory Daco reported ...
Gregory Daco: Fed Chair Warsh did not indicate possible rate hike as markets price 14 percent odds
Fed Chair Warsh did not provide any indication of a possible rate hike, with markets currently pricing in 14 percent odds. Gregory Daco stated that, in his opinion, this fact, combined with recent ...
U.S. retail sales rose 0.8 percent in September, Gregory Daco notes
U.S. retail sales increased by 0.8% month-over-month in September, with inflation-adjusted sales up just 0.1%. Core sales also rose 0.1%, while volumes were flat for the month. Gregory Daco ...
Gregory Daco: New York Fed chief sees one more rate hike appropriate this year
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he still sees one more interest-rate hike as appropriate this year, but does not currently believe it will be necessary for the ...
Sovereign debt supply and demand dynamics shape markets, Gregory Daco discusses
Gregory Daco highlights a discussion among Jim Poterba, Brian Sack, and Carmen Reinhart on the implications of sovereign debt for financial markets and fiscal space at NABE2026. The conversation, ...
Gregory Daco: 2026 holiday season set for strongest sales growth in five years
Gregory Daco projects that the 2026 holiday season will deliver the strongest sales growth in five years. According to Daco, forecasts from the EY Parthenon team predict a 5.2% increase in ...
Short-term inflation expectations hit highest since May 2023, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco reports that short-term inflation expectations in the U.S. climbed in September to their highest level since May 2023, according to the New York Fed. The one-year-ahead inflation ...
Gregory Daco: Pullback in oil prices drives stocks to all-time highs
Gregory Daco reports that a decline in oil prices has contributed to stocks reaching all-time highs. Wall Street gains were further supported by renewed enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence ...
Spiking bond yields and currency drop signal trouble for ECB, Gregory Daco warns
Gregory Daco warns that a French crisis would present significant difficulties for the European Central Bank. He points out that rising budget deficits, climbing bond yields, and a weakening ...
Gregory Daco: French bond selloff intensifies on deficit concerns and political uncertainty
Gregory Daco notes that a global selloff in debt markets is impacting France more severely and rapidly than anticipated. He highlights that concerns over missed deficit targets, policy gridlock, ...
Inflation jumps in Europe’s largest markets, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco highlights that inflation in Europe’s leading economies has surged to its highest level in years following a recent upswing in energy markets. This development is drawing increased ...
Gregory Daco: U.S. consumer confidence falls to lowest since 2014 across all groups
Gregory Daco reports that U.S. consumer confidence declined across all age groups, income levels, and political affiliations, reaching its lowest point since 2014. Daco points to mounting ...
Managing supply shocks while controlling inflation involves trade-offs, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco explores the complexities of central banking in an environment marked by frequent supply shocks. He discusses the challenge of identifying when an initial rise in prices could ...
Gregory Daco: Strong U.S. capital spending trends led by AI investment
Gregory Daco highlights that U.S. capital expenditures remain robust even after adjusting for inflation. He points to a surge in AI-related investments as the primary driver, with notable ...
Latest Chief Economists Outlook reviews global economic trends, Gregory Daco discusses
Gregory Daco joined Radio Davos with Robin Pomeroy to discuss the latest World Economic Forum Chief Economists Outlook, which provides a regular overview of the global economy. In the discussion, ...
