Global Economics and Macro Analysis by Gregory Daco
Gregory Daco: More households expect worsening financial outlook by May 2026
Gregory Daco reports that a rising number of households foresee a deterioration in their financial situation over the next year. According to recent data, the proportion of households expecting ...
Federal Reserve forward guidance could be rolled back soon, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco reports that Kevin Warsh is expected to overhaul how the Federal Reserve communicates with Wall Street. Several former top officials anticipate that Warsh may begin reversing the ...
Gregory Daco: U.S. ISM manufacturing index hits four-year high in May
Gregory Daco reports that the U.S. ISM manufacturing index climbed to its highest level in four years in May, with key components such as new orders and production showing notable expansion. ...
U.S. GDP rises 1.6 percent in Q1 2026, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco reports that U.S. real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2026 has been revised 0.4 percentage points lower. Quarter-on-quarter, growth reached 1.6 percent, while year-on-year growth ...
Gregory Daco: U.S. household debt delinquency rate steady at 4.8% in Q1 '26
Gregory Daco reports on the New York Federal Reserve's Household Debt & Credit Report for Q1 '26. The U.S. household debt delinquency rate remains flat at 4.8%. New 30-day delinquencies edged ...
Longer-maturity U.S. Treasury yields near decades highs, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco highlights that a surge in longer-maturity U.S. Treasury yields is putting global bond investors in a difficult position. These investors are weighing the opportunity to lock in rates ...
Gregory Daco: Easing wage growth and falling job switcher premium signal income squeeze
Gregory Daco highlights that recent data from the Atlanta Fed point to easing wage growth and a disappearing premium for workers who switch jobs. According to Daco, these changes indicate most ...
Inflation is outpacing real wage growth, Gregory Daco warns
Gregory Daco highlights rising inflation and declining real wages in the U.S. He observes that consumers are increasingly relying on savings, credit, and wealth to cope with reduced purchasing ...
Gregory Daco: U.S. inflation accelerates in April as CPI rises 0.6 percent
Gregory Daco highlights that U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation increased in April, with headline CPI climbing 0.6 percent and core CPI up 0.4 percent. Food and energy prices posted ...
U.S. nonfarm productivity grows 0.8 percent in Q1, Gregory Daco notes
Gregory Daco, industry influencer, reports that U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased by 0.8 percent in Q1. Output rose by 1.5 percent, while hours worked gained 0.7 percent. ...
Gregory Daco: U.S. services sector expands despite Middle East conflict concerns
Gregory Daco, industry influencer, reports that the U.S. services sector continues to expand, although many businesses are preparing for possible impacts from the ongoing conflict in the Middle ...
Labor market turns more disinflationary, Gregory Daco warns
Gregory Daco, industry influencer, highlights that slower labor cost growth is emerging as a risk to consumer income. He notes that the labor market is becoming increasingly disinflationary, ...
Gregory Daco: Bank of Canada holds policy rate steady at 2.25 percent
Gregory Daco, industry influencer, reports that the Bank of Canada has decided to keep its policy rate at 2.25 percent. Daco notes that ongoing Middle East conflict and U.S. trade policy are ...
Germany faces weak economic rebound in 2026, Florian Eder notes
Florian Eder, industry influencer, highlights that 2026 was intended to signal a new chapter for Germany. However, Eder states that the anticipated economic rebound is already showing signs of ...
Gregory Daco: Fed independence not at risk from political pressure
Gregory Daco highlighted comments from Kevin Warsh stating that Federal Reserve independence is not under threat from political pressure. The message was shared via the Financial Times, ...
Euro-zone outlook ranges from ECB base scenario to worse, Gregory Daco notes
President Christine Lagarde described the euro-zone economy as positioned between the European Central Bank's base case projection for the war in Iran and a less favorable scenario. Gregory Daco ...
Gregory Daco: U.S. producer prices rise 0.5 percent with core at 0.2 percent
U.S. producer prices increased by 0.5 percent, with core producer prices up 0.2 percent, according to Gregory Daco. The breakdown shows energy prices jumping 8.5 percent, food prices declining 0.3 ...
U.S. disposable income falls and inflation-adjusted spending weakens, Gregory Daco notes
U.S. consumers are showing signs of strain as spending growth slows and savings rates decline. Gregory Daco highlights that consumer spending rose by 0.5%, with inflation-adjusted growth just ...
Gregory Daco: U.S. services sentiment dips as inflation surges in March
U.S. services sector sentiment fell in March but remains resilient, according to economist Gregory Daco. The ISM Services Index dropped by 2.1 points to 54, with activity at 53.9, down 6.0 points. ...
Conflict revives inflation concerns and hurts economic momentum, Gregory Daco warns
The conflict in the Middle East is bringing renewed concerns about inflation and hindering global economic growth, according to Gregory Daco. The OECD indicated that the economic rebound seen at ...
Gregory Daco: Chicago Fed president outlines scenarios for rate cuts or hikes
Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee highlighted the dual paths monetary policy could take, depending on how inflation evolves. Gregory Daco shared these remarks, noting that multiple rate ...
