Global economics, finance, and macro commentary by Matthew Klein
Matthew Klein: U.S. inflation remains persistent despite recent data
Matthew Klein examines the current state of U.S. inflation, challenging the prevailing narrative that inflation is slowing. He highlights factors such as residual seasonality, wage growth, and ...
Solid balance sheet and inflation teams picked, Matthew Klein notes
Matthew Klein shares a positive view of a recently released list, particularly highlighting the quality of the selections for balance sheet and inflation task forces. He describes the lineup as ...
Matthew Klein: BEA updates show U.S. consumer spending distribution by income
Matthew Klein highlights that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has published updated estimates on the distribution of U.S. consumer spending by income level. He disputes the idea of ...
Potential changes to disposable personal income with different deficit levels, Matthew Klein notes
Matthew Klein raises a question about how disposable personal income might have looked under a counterfactual scenario with smaller deficits. The tweet addresses the potential economic ...
Matthew Klein: Kweichow Moutai market cap larger than peer but majority stake held by Guizhou province
Matthew Klein compares the market capitalization of Kweichow Moutai, noting it remains somewhat larger than a peer company. He points out that most shares of Kweichow Moutai are owned by Guizhou ...
Taxing corporate profits and high incomes is seen as unproductive, Matthew Klein argues
Matthew Klein observes that both Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and orthodox or right-leaning public finance perspectives share a view on taxation. He highlights that these schools of thought ...
Matthew Klein: Russia sees limited oil revenue gains from energy price increase
Matthew Klein reports that the rise in energy prices since the beginning of the conflict with Iran has not substantially improved the Russian government's finances or those of its military ...
Wage growth supports faster service price increases, Matthew Klein notes
Matthew Klein highlights that the U.S. job market continues to have inflationary pressures, with wage growth now accelerating slightly. He points to a rise in 'supercore' service price increases ...
Matthew Klein: Saudi investments in U.S. assets shaped by Western influence
Matthew Klein, industry influencer, draws attention to Paul Blustein's analysis of Saudi and related investments in U.S. assets. Klein highlights how historical efforts by West Germany and Japan ...
Excess inflation likely persists beyond tariff effects, Matthew Klein argues
Matthew Klein agrees with Warsh that most excess inflation is not primarily the result of tariffs. He argues this makes the situation worse, as it implies inflation could persist even after all ...
Matthew Klein: U.S. fiscal policy linked to current account balance
Matthew Klein addressed the relationship between U.S. fiscal policy and the current account balance. The tweet suggests consideration of how government spending and fiscal measures may influence ...
Wage patterns in health care and cyclical sectors shift, Matthew Klein notes
Matthew Klein highlights that U.S. wage growth patterns are shifting, with notable differences emerging between industries. He observes that something unusual is happening with wages in health ...
Matthew Klein: Russia's energy gains limited by sanctions and export controls
Russia's financial gains from higher oil and gas prices are constrained as long as sanctions and export controls remain in place. Matthew Klein shares this analysis in a recent piece for THE ...
Oil and gas windfall revenue to rebuild national fund, Matthew Klein notes
The Russian government plans to allocate its oil and gas revenue windfall directly toward rebuilding its depleted national welfare fund. Matthew Klein highlights that, according to official ...
Matthew Klein: Risk management needs dramaturges and clowns alongside quants and accountants
Matthew Klein suggests that risk management teams should not only include quants and accountants, but also dramaturges and clowns. The statement underscores the importance of diverse perspectives ...
Spending in lower-income areas outpaces top ZIP codes, Matthew Klein notes
Lower-income ZIP codes have experienced more robust consumer spending growth than top-earning areas, according to Matthew Klein. Klein identifies this pattern using Stripe transaction data, which ...
Matthew Klein: Oil spot price rises 65 percent but future prices remain below drilling returns
Oil spot prices have surged 65 percent, reaching $99, but forward prices for 2027 and 2028 are up only 17 percent and 12 percent, respectively. This is according to Matthew Klein, citing oil ...
Oil supply hit is unprecedented beyond Covid, Matthew Klein notes
Markets are maintaining a calm stance despite the current oil shock causing an unprecedented hit to supply volumes outside of Covid. Matthew Klein observes that previous oil shocks in 1973 and ...
Matthew Klein: Brent futures curve offers risk premium on distant contracts
Matthew Klein points to the Brent futures curve, referencing a comment from an industry expert. According to Klein, investors have an opportunity to earn a risk premium by purchasing commodity ...
New economic shock alters inflation outlook, Matthew Klein says
A new analysis from Matthew Klein raises concerns about changing inflation expectations. Klein notes that the recent inflation shock, at least the third in the past six years, could prompt a ...
Matthew Klein analyzes tariff effectiveness for U.S. balance of payments in 2026
Matthew Klein raises questions about the effectiveness of tariffs as a tool for managing the U.S. balance of payments, specifically referencing Section 122. He examines whether such measures ...
