Economic Trends and Market Commentary by Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock, known online as “Mish,” is an independent economic analyst and former investment advisor. Through his long-running blog “Mish Talk,” Shedlock provides macro commentary on central bank policy, market cycles, and high-risk asset classes including crypto. His analysis frequently addresses inflation data, interest rate effects on capital markets, and government debt monetization. While not a direct participant in crypto markets, Shedlock’s perspective offers contextual risk evaluation relevant to institutional digital asset holders.
As of Q3 2025, his blog features more than 3,800 published articles and attracts over 2 million unique monthly readers. Shedlock has described Bitcoin as a speculative hedge, noting volatility correlation with tech equities and reduced decoupling during monetary tightening cycles. Articles critique crypto leverage, ETF speculation, and regulatory ambiguity. Despite a critical tone, blockchain's potential role in remittance and financial access remains acknowledged. Shedlock frequently appears on Seeking Alpha and TalkMarkets and has been featured in over 150 podcast episodes and interviews since 2020.
Credit growth needed to expand real GDP, Mike Shedlock notes
Mike Shedlock, author and blogger at MishTalk, raises the question of how much credit growth is necessary to expand real GDP. He presents data-driven analysis to show the relationship between ...
Mike Shedlock: Core inflation measure overlooks broad energy impact
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, questions the effectiveness of using core inflation as a benchmark because it excludes food and energy costs. He emphasizes that energy prices ...
$1.8 trillion in AI-linked off-balance sheet debt raises risk concerns, Mike Shedlock warns
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, warns that $1.8 trillion in AI-related debt is held off balance sheets, compared with $1.4 trillion on the books. He likens this situation to the ...
Mike Shedlock: Gold shows signs of bottoming with notable market action
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, highlights a potential signal that gold prices may have bottomed, based on today’s market action. He shares that this market behavior stands out as ...
Global economies depend on U.S. dollar assets, Mike Shedlock notes
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, discusses the challenge facing the world in moving away from the U.S. dollar. He points out that the U.S. consumer acts as the global consumer of ...
Mike Shedlock: Examining U.S. reliance on Amazon and nonstore retail sales
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, examines the importance of Amazon and nonstore retail sales in the U.S. economy. He emphasizes the need to analyze "real" sales data to answer how ...
Housing starts surge nearly 20 percent in June, Mike Shedlock notes
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, reports that housing starts rebounded by nearly 20 percent in June, driven entirely by growth in multi-family construction. He highlights ongoing ...
Mike Shedlock: Bitcoin unlikely to rise sharply
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, expresses skepticism about Bitcoin’s ability to determine its own trajectory. He compares Bitcoin's decision-making to inanimate objects and ...
Upcoming CPI and PCE reports may point to rate hikes, Mike Shedlock suggests
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, highlights that upcoming CPI and PCE inflation forecasts strongly hint at further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. He notes that the next ...
Mike Shedlock: Fed minutes raise inflation risk and highlight weaker employment outlook
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, reports that the latest Federal Reserve minutes signal increasing risks of inflation while economic projections for GDP have been lowered, and ...
Home prices stay elevated as transactions slow, Mike Shedlock notes
Mike Shedlock, author and blogger at MishTalk, highlights that the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is hovering close to its all-time highs. According to Shedlock, while home prices stay ...
Mike Shedlock: Calling 8% recession odds doom porn draws attention
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, comments on the perception of recession forecasts. Shedlock notes that labeling an 8% and declining chance of recession as "doom porn" is notable, ...
Free market sets true economic course, Mike Shedlock argues
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, argues that only the free market can accurately set Federal Reserve policy. Shedlock rejects an alternate proposal, stating that relying on anything ...
Mike Shedlock: Markets see 70 percent chance of Fed rate hike before U.S. election
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, highlights that the market is forecasting a 70.4 percent chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike before the upcoming U.S. election. He adds that U.S. ...
Consider refinancing car loans to reduce expenses, Mike Shedlock notes
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, suggests that those with car loans could save money by exploring refinancing options. He adds that he does not generally recommend car loans, but ...
Mike Shedlock: Business activity declines for sixth month in France and third in Germany
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, reports that business activity has fallen for the sixth consecutive month in France and for the third month in Germany. He adds that, while business ...
Nonstore sales are about to overtake motor vehicles, Mike Shedlock notes
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, observes that nonstore sales are poised to surpass motor vehicle sales as early as next month, based on recent chart trends. He highlights the ...
Mike Shedlock: Oil prices have minimal impact on rates and bond yields
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, examines the relationship between oil prices and interest rates as well as bond yields. He states that visual evidence suggests the influence of oil ...
Fed can only constrain deficits through rate hikes, Mike Shedlock argues
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, discusses responsibility for the U.S. deficit and debt, emphasizing that Congress is fundamentally accountable for persistent deficits and rising debt ...
Mike Shedlock: Largest share of Iran frozen assets believed held in China
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, raises the question of where Iran's frozen assets are held and how much is involved. He points to estimates that indicate the largest portion of ...
Oil drops 5 percent to $80.52, Mike Shedlock notes
Mike Shedlock, author / blogger at MishTalk, highlights three reasons why the price of oil may have reached a bottom, even in the face of a recent deal. West Texas Intermediate crude oil has ...
