Energy markets, oil analysis, and commodity research by Rory Johnston
U.S. diesel crack spreads climb sharply by $12 per barrel, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston reports that U.S. diesel crack spreads, representing refining margins between NYH ULSD and Brent crude, are rising rapidly once again. Over the past three days, these spreads have ...
Rory Johnston: U.S. commercial petroleum inventories steady, crude falls sharply
Rory Johnston reports that U.S. headline commercial petroleum inventories held steady last week, recording a slight decrease of 0.5 million barrels. Commercial crude oil inventories fell by 6.1 ...
Speculators cut Brent crude positions sharply, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston highlights that speculators shed nearly half their net length in Brent crude contracts last week. The sharp decrease is described as a capitulation event in the ...
Rory Johnston: Trump seeks market stability as crude prices ease
Rory Johnston observes that U.S. President Donald Trump appears more eager to secure a deal now to prevent market turmoil, even though crude oil prices are significantly below their peak and ...
Weekly patterns affect trader data updates, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston observes that selloffs occurring on Tuesdays are captured in Friday's Commitments of Traders data. This highlights the timing relationship between market movements early in the week ...
Rory Johnston: Brent net speculative positions revert to mid-January levels
Rory Johnston reports that Brent net speculative positions experienced a significant decline over the past week. The latest movement brings the positions back to levels last observed in ...
Brent falls below $90 per barrel, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston reports a significant decline in Brent crude prices, with futures dropping around $3 per barrel and falling below the $90 per barrel mark. The move suggests a notable shift in oil ...
Rory Johnston: Brent crude struggles to hold above $90 per barrel
Rory Johnston highlights that Brent crude is fighting to stay above $90 per barrel. The current price is just one dollar per barrel higher than the low reached in mid-April during the Iran War. ...
Crude prices rise midweek before easing, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston reports that crude oil prices rose through Wednesday before pulling back to finish the week only modestly higher. According to Johnston, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran ...
Rory Johnston: Chinese seaborne crude imports fall 50 percent from pre-war levels
Rory Johnston highlights that Chinese seaborne crude imports have dropped approximately 50 percent from pre-war levels, according to recent data from Kpler tracking. He adds that Beijing is ...
Chinese refineries reduce runs due to low margins but consumer demand holds up, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston observes that it is logical for Chinese refineries to reduce operational runs and imports in response to collapsing margins. However, Johnston finds it less intuitive that ...
Rory Johnston: Brent crude net spec positions see largest weekly pullback of war
Rory Johnston highlights that Brent crude net speculative positioning experienced its largest weekly pullback since the start of the war. He adds that much of the recent crude price pullback ...
Oil market reactions rarely lead to supply shocks, Rory Johnston warns
Rory Johnston observes that the oil market has tended to overreact to geopolitical risks throughout his career, with these risks rarely materializing into actual supply shocks. He notes that ...
Rory Johnston: Crude prices fell by about $10 per barrel on weekend optimism
Rory Johnston highlighted that weekend crude prices on Hyperliquid experienced a decline of approximately $10 per barrel due to optimism following Saturday's negotiations. According to Johnston, ...
Crude prices rebound from recent losses, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston reports that crude prices have reversed their most recent selloff, which was driven by optimism reflected in headlines. The market appears to be correcting following an initial ...
Rory Johnston: March oil rally driven by Gulf war risk fears
Rory Johnston reflects on how the oil market could have responded to renewed open conflict in the Gulf. He observes that much of the March oil price rally was likely driven by precautionary ...
Brent December futures set at crisis highs, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston observes that Brent crude futures for December 2026, December 2027, and December 2028 are currently at crisis highs. This trend reflects the ongoing upward movement in the crude ...
Rory Johnston: Brent futures at $103 as Dated Brent trades at $105
Rory Johnston, industry influencer, highlights that Brent futures are currently trading at $103 per barrel, compared to the latest Dated Brent quote of $105 per barrel. He adds that despite a ...
Imports decline as exports collapse, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston, industry influencer, explains that falling imports should not be interpreted as demand destruction. According to Johnston, imports are decreasing because exports have collapsed, ...
Rory Johnston: Brent swings from $5 loss to $2 gain in a day
Rory Johnston, industry influencer, observed that Brent crude experienced a notable reversal, shifting from a $5 per barrel decline to a $2 per barrel gain within the same day. Johnston remarked ...
Intraday crude swings above $15 per barrel call for a break, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston, industry influencer, commented on the dramatic intraday movements in crude oil prices. Johnston suggested that a policy allowing for a nap may be warranted when crude oil prices ...
