Energy markets, oil analysis, and commodity research by Rory Johnston
Crude speculators maintain inflow momentum despite limited new positions, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston maintains that crude speculative inflow momentum continues, though activity was not significantly larger over the week. Some short covering was observed, but there was not much new ...
Rory Johnston: Brent crude futures curve shifts notably over past month
Rory Johnston highlights the notable movements in the Brent crude futures curve. The curve's current shape is compared to its positions from a week and a month ago, illustrating significant ...
Brent crude climbs above $90 with few tankers passing Hormuz, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston reports that Brent crude oil prices have moved back above $90 per barrel this morning. Johnston also observes that, despite increased diplomatic discussions, there is still a ...
Rory Johnston: Brent crude rises about $3 ahead of key CFTC positioning data
Rory Johnston observes that Brent crude oil prices increased by approximately $3 per barrel between two survey windows. He suggests this move would be considered bullish for the market if it was ...
Canadian company to deploy C$1 billion Emirati capital, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston announced that Commodity Context, as a growing Canadian company, is prepared to deploy at least C$1 billion in Emirati capital. He added that the context surrounding this initiative ...
Rory Johnston: China refiners cancel crude oil deals amid import demand concerns
Rory Johnston highlights that a refiner in China has cancelled deals for at least 6 million barrels of crude oil, according to three sources familiar with the matter. This includes 2 million ...
Gasoline trades near its tightest levels versus crude, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston points out that while crude oil and gasoline are related, they are fundamentally different commodities. He observes that the current crude oil market is relatively loose, even if ...
Rory Johnston: U.S. oil rig count rises by 7 to 440
Rory Johnston reports that the U.S. oil rig count increased by 7 to 440, according to data from Baker Hughes. He remarked on the remarkable timing of this change, suggesting a significant ...
U.S. diesel crack spreads climb sharply by $12 per barrel, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston reports that U.S. diesel crack spreads, representing refining margins between NYH ULSD and Brent crude, are rising rapidly once again. Over the past three days, these spreads have ...
Rory Johnston: U.S. commercial petroleum inventories steady, crude falls sharply
Rory Johnston reports that U.S. headline commercial petroleum inventories held steady last week, recording a slight decrease of 0.5 million barrels. Commercial crude oil inventories fell by 6.1 ...
Speculators cut Brent crude positions sharply, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston highlights that speculators shed nearly half their net length in Brent crude contracts last week. The sharp decrease is described as a capitulation event in the ...
Rory Johnston: Trump seeks market stability as crude prices ease
Rory Johnston observes that U.S. President Donald Trump appears more eager to secure a deal now to prevent market turmoil, even though crude oil prices are significantly below their peak and ...
Weekly patterns affect trader data updates, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston observes that selloffs occurring on Tuesdays are captured in Friday's Commitments of Traders data. This highlights the timing relationship between market movements early in the week ...
Rory Johnston: Brent net speculative positions revert to mid-January levels
Rory Johnston reports that Brent net speculative positions experienced a significant decline over the past week. The latest movement brings the positions back to levels last observed in ...
Brent falls below $90 per barrel, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston reports a significant decline in Brent crude prices, with futures dropping around $3 per barrel and falling below the $90 per barrel mark. The move suggests a notable shift in oil ...
Rory Johnston: Brent crude struggles to hold above $90 per barrel
Rory Johnston highlights that Brent crude is fighting to stay above $90 per barrel. The current price is just one dollar per barrel higher than the low reached in mid-April during the Iran War. ...
Crude prices rise midweek before easing, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston reports that crude oil prices rose through Wednesday before pulling back to finish the week only modestly higher. According to Johnston, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran ...
Rory Johnston: Chinese seaborne crude imports fall 50 percent from pre-war levels
Rory Johnston highlights that Chinese seaborne crude imports have dropped approximately 50 percent from pre-war levels, according to recent data from Kpler tracking. He adds that Beijing is ...
Chinese refineries reduce runs due to low margins but consumer demand holds up, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston observes that it is logical for Chinese refineries to reduce operational runs and imports in response to collapsing margins. However, Johnston finds it less intuitive that ...
Rory Johnston: Brent crude net spec positions see largest weekly pullback of war
Rory Johnston highlights that Brent crude net speculative positioning experienced its largest weekly pullback since the start of the war. He adds that much of the recent crude price pullback ...
Oil market reactions rarely lead to supply shocks, Rory Johnston warns
Rory Johnston observes that the oil market has tended to overreact to geopolitical risks throughout his career, with these risks rarely materializing into actual supply shocks. He notes that ...
