Energy markets, oil analysis, and commodity research by Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston: Western Canadian Select spread to WTI hits widest level since November 2023
Rory Johnston reports that Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude differentials at Hardisty, Alberta, have widened to more than $25 per barrel under West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and to over $16 per ...
IEA to prioritize diesel amid tight supplies, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston reports that the International Energy Agency's member countries are prepared to release additional oil from their strategic reserves if necessary. The agency's head said that ...
Rory Johnston: Oil market balance not driven by EM Asian demand destruction
Rory Johnston challenges the view that the oil market is balancing solely because of significant demand destruction in emerging market Asia. He points out that the current market conditions do ...
November Arab Light crude price set at $5 below Oman and Dubai, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston highlights that Saudi Arabia has set the November official selling price for Arab Light crude oil to Asia at $5 a barrel below the average of Oman and Dubai prices, marking a $3 ...
Rory Johnston: Oil faces record supply shock and buffer drawdown risk
Rory Johnston outlines a scenario in which oil experiences its largest-ever supply shock and a record pace of stock and emergency buffer drawdown. According to Johnston, stocks would drop from ...
Crude pulls back on stronger Middle East flows, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston highlights that crude oil prices retreated following a recovery in oil flows from the Middle East, even as concerns mount about escalating hostilities in the region. He notes that ...
Rory Johnston: Brent crude rises over $4 as December 2026 contract surges
Rory Johnston reports that Brent crude prices increased by more than $4 per barrel today based on the current prompt December 2026 contract. He also notes that the prompt Brent timespread ...
Generalists react to crack spread term, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston comments on the reactions of generalists when they first encounter the term "crack spread." The phrase is commonly used in the finance and energy sectors, often unfamiliar to those ...
Rory Johnston: Data provider changes can impact oil market pricing
Rory Johnston discusses the significance of recent changes made by a data provider and their potential impact on market pricing in the oil sector. He notes that while some might assume major ...
Market participants reverse stances on tanker data, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston observes that there has been a notable shift in how market participants interpret tanker-inferred Hormuz oil flow data. For most of the past 6 months, oil bulls cited weak data to ...
Rory Johnston: Hormuz oil flows remain down 7 million barrels per day during ongoing conflict
Rory Johnston points out that Hormuz oil flows continue to be reduced by 7 million barrels per day after more than 200 days of conflict, even as crude prices remain at only $100 per barrel. ...
Retail diesel price gap widens between U.S. and China, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston highlights a growing divergence between U.S. and Chinese retail diesel prices year to date. He also references NYMEX diesel and Singapore gasoil futures prices to provide further ...
Rory Johnston: Chinese fuel prices remain low due to domestic price caps
Rory Johnston highlights that domestic Chinese fuel prices are being kept artificially low by government-imposed price caps. This approach is leading to various distortions in the domestic ...
New York diesel outpaces European gasoil as export ban widens, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston compares price movements between New York Harbor diesel and European gasoil, both indexed to 100. Johnston highlights the growing difference between the two fuel benchmarks, ...
Rory Johnston: Brent crude falls below $100 per barrel for first time since pipeline attack
Rory Johnston reports that Brent crude has dropped below $100 per barrel for the first time since before the attack on the East-West pipeline. He suggests that the market is placing its faith in ...
Commodities supply tightness continues despite smaller deficits, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston highlights that commodities markets experiencing acute supply deficits will remain tight until a genuine surplus is achieved. He emphasizes that while a reduction in the size of ...
Rory Johnston: Diesel crack spreads match crude price level as surge continues
Rory Johnston highlights that while crude oil prices remain elevated, the increase in diesel prices is being significantly driven by record-high sustained diesel crack spreads. According to ...
Brent crude tops July high, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston highlights that Brent crude has just moved above its July high close. The July intraday high was $102. Following this threshold, Johnston indicates that future comparisons for Brent ...
Rory Johnston: Chevron to invest $7 billion to double oil output in Venezuela
Rory Johnston reports that Chevron plans to invest $7 billion to more than double its oil production in Venezuela over the next five years, increasing output from approximately 300,000 to 600,000 ...
U.S. diesel crack spread nears all-time daily high, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston reports that the U.S. diesel crack spread versus Brent is approaching $100 per barrel, reaching the highest sustained level in history. According to Johnston, this development puts ...
Rory Johnston: Crude markets ease as economic disappointment and higher Hormuz transits persist
Rory Johnston reports that crude oil markets have pulled back following disappointment around a key economic event, while vessel traffic through the Hormuz Strait continues to climb. At the same ...
