Energy markets, oil analysis, and commodity research by Rory Johnston
January 2027 Brent crude slips at week’s start, Rory Johnston notes
January 2027 Brent crude prices declined slightly at the start of the week, while trading in the December 2026 Brent contract ended on Friday. Rory Johnston reported that the rolling prompt ...
Rory Johnston: Reliable data on Iran’s economy is limited to FX and oil exports
Reliable assessments of Iran’s domestic economic performance during the war and blockade are difficult, with information primarily limited to foreign exchange rates and oil export figures. Rory ...
Canadian heavy crude price gaps hit new records, Rory Johnston notes
Canadian heavy crude price differentials have reached their widest levels on record compared to WTI in Cushing, Houston, and on the West Coast of Canada. Rory Johnston said the primary Hardisty ...
Rory Johnston: Western Canadian Select crude spread hits $31 below WTI in Hardisty
The price differential between Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude and WTI in Hardisty, Alberta has widened to $31 per barrel. Rory Johnston stated that this matches the widest spread observed ...
Crude oil rebounds after initial decline, Rory Johnston notes
Crude oil prices moved back into positive territory after beginning the week down from Friday’s close. Rory Johnston stated it could be a volatile week ahead for crude ...
Rory Johnston: Oil prices rise as political risk premium returns and buyers act before potential escalation
Crude oil prices have climbed toward levels last seen during the Iran War, with a political risk premium returning to the market as buyers secure supplies ahead of a possible re-escalation. Rory ...
Market shows unusual patience on low oil inventory and geopolitical risk, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston said there is no doubt the market has been both abnormally patient regarding low inventory levels and comparatively numb to geopolitical risk in oil through 2026. Johnston added ...
Rory Johnston: EIA data shows 8.5 MMbbl commercial draw and petroleum stocks at deep seasonal low
U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly inventory data reported an 8.5 million barrel commercial crude draw, leaving total petroleum stocks at their deepest level below the seasonal ...
Dated Brent to Frontline spread rises above $7, Rory Johnston notes
The Dated Brent to Frontline (DFL) spread has increased to more than $7 per barrel in backwardation today after weakening earlier in October. Rory Johnston stated that this movement signals a ...
Rory Johnston: Brent crude rises above $109 as morning rally continues
Brent crude moved back above $109 in the morning session after pulling back overnight. Rory Johnston reported that DFLs nearly returned to $6 per barrel in backwardation, recovering from last ...
Multiple obstacles impact Canadian oil profits, Rory Johnston notes
Canadian oil producers are currently facing significant obstacles that hinder their ability to benefit from elevated global crude prices. Rory Johnston pointed to factors including rising ...
Rory Johnston: U.S. commercial petroleum stocks fell by 13.4 million barrels last week
U.S. commercial petroleum stocks declined by 13.4 million barrels last week, representing the largest weekly commercial draw since April. Rory Johnston highlighted that the draw was driven by ...
Bearish divergence appears between prompt Brent crude price and timespread, Rory Johnston notes
A bearish divergence has emerged between the flat prompt Brent crude futures price and the prompt timespread, according to Rory Johnston. Johnston described this divergence as an interesting ...
Rory Johnston: Western Canadian Select spread to WTI hits widest level since November 2023
Rory Johnston reports that Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude differentials at Hardisty, Alberta, have widened to more than $25 per barrel under West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and to over $16 per ...
IEA to prioritize diesel amid tight supplies, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston reports that the International Energy Agency's member countries are prepared to release additional oil from their strategic reserves if necessary. The agency's head said that ...
Rory Johnston: Oil market balance not driven by EM Asian demand destruction
Rory Johnston challenges the view that the oil market is balancing solely because of significant demand destruction in emerging market Asia. He points out that the current market conditions do ...
November Arab Light crude price set at $5 below Oman and Dubai, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston highlights that Saudi Arabia has set the November official selling price for Arab Light crude oil to Asia at $5 a barrel below the average of Oman and Dubai prices, marking a $3 ...
Rory Johnston: Oil faces record supply shock and buffer drawdown risk
Rory Johnston outlines a scenario in which oil experiences its largest-ever supply shock and a record pace of stock and emergency buffer drawdown. According to Johnston, stocks would drop from ...
Crude pulls back on stronger Middle East flows, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston highlights that crude oil prices retreated following a recovery in oil flows from the Middle East, even as concerns mount about escalating hostilities in the region. He notes that ...
Rory Johnston: Brent crude rises over $4 as December 2026 contract surges
Rory Johnston reports that Brent crude prices increased by more than $4 per barrel today based on the current prompt December 2026 contract. He also notes that the prompt Brent timespread ...
Generalists react to crack spread term, Rory Johnston notes
Rory Johnston comments on the reactions of generalists when they first encounter the term "crack spread." The phrase is commonly used in the finance and energy sectors, often unfamiliar to those ...
