Trade Policy and Economic Analysis by Scott Lincicome
Industrial policy links to IPO market studied, Scott Lincicome notes
A new paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research examines the use of industrial policy via the IPO market. Scott Lincicome drew attention to this publication in a recent ...
Scott Lincicome: Napa Valley faces economic strain as wine prices surge
Scott Lincicome highlights the economic challenges facing Napa Valley as the region experiences what is described as the worst market correction in years. He notes that the persistent rise in wine ...
U.S. trade deficit returns to earlier levels, Scott Lincicome notes
Scott Lincicome points out that the U.S. trade deficit has returned to levels seen before tariffs were implemented. The observation suggests that recent trade policy changes have not produced a ...
Scott Lincicome: DoD inks $1.5 billion deal with Wolfspeed including 7.5% equity stake
Scott Lincicome highlights that the U.S. Department of Defense has secured a $1.5 billion deal with Wolfspeed, a company connected to the CHIPS Act and recently experiencing bankruptcy. The ...
U.S. government deficit spending leads to trade deficit, Scott Lincicome argues
Scott Lincicome points out that one of the primary reasons for the large trade deficit in the U.S. is government activity, specifically ongoing deficit spending. He highlights the direct impact ...
Scott Lincicome: Below-average-paying industries added 50,000 jobs in September
Scott Lincicome highlights that below-average-paying industries accounted for 50,000 out of 46,000 total private sector jobs added in September. He further observes that above-average-paying ...
Higher rates continue to lower mortgage demand, Scott Lincicome notes
Scott Lincicome highlights that higher interest rates have led to a decline in U.S. mortgage demand. The outcome is described as unsurprising, suggesting that the impact of elevated borrowing ...
Scott Lincicome: Layoffs in Dayton reported to erase year of job growth
Scott Lincicome reports that layoffs in the greater Dayton, Ohio, area were substantial enough to effectively erase an entire year of job growth. He adds that broad tariffs failed to improve ...
Persistently higher Treasury yields may add trillions to U.S. debt, Scott Lincicome notes
Scott Lincicome highlights that persistently higher Treasury yields could add trillions of dollars to U.S. government debt over the next 10 years. He references analysis suggesting that prolonged ...
Scott Lincicome: U.S. goods-trade gap widens to largest since 2025
Scott Lincicome highlights that the U.S. goods-trade gap has unexpectedly widened to its largest level since 2025. The author implies this development was not genuinely surprising, despite how ...
Foreign tax advantages shift post U.S. tax reform, Scott Lincicome notes
Scott Lincicome shares a new report from NBER titled Foreign Tax Advantages after the U.S. Tax Reform of 2017. The study focuses on changes in foreign tax advantages following the significant ...
Scott Lincicome: Diesel at $6 and mortgage rates at 7 percent raise economic concerns
Scott Lincicome draws attention to elevated diesel prices of $6 and mortgage rates at 7 percent in the U.S. economy. Lincicome suggests that if it were still 2025, younger generations might have ...
Latest CBO and Census income data displayed, Scott Lincicome notes
Scott Lincicome shares a series of charts depicting recent income figures from the Congressional Budget Office and the Census Bureau. The data are inflation-adjusted, providing a comparative look ...
Scott Lincicome: Costco quarterly profit exceeds estimates after tariff refunds
Scott Lincicome reports that Costco's quarterly profit has surpassed analyst estimates, driven by tariff refunds. The update indicates stronger-than-expected financial performance from Costco for ...
U.S. five-year yields top 5 percent for first time since 2007, Scott Lincicome notes
Scott Lincicome highlights that U.S. five-year bond yields have risen above 5 percent for the first time since 2007. This milestone signals a notable move in the U.S. Treasury market, with yields ...
Scott Lincicome: Predictions that China would surpass U.S. economy proved premature
Scott Lincicome highlights how, ten years ago, many experts predicted China’s economy would soon overtake that of the U.S. According to Lincicome, the Chinese economic outlook has shifted in ...
Interest deductibility limits impact corporate innovation, Scott Lincicome notes
Scott Lincicome shares a new National Bureau of Economic Research study titled 'When Tax Shields Shrink: Interest Deductibility Limitations and Corporate Innovation.' The study investigates how ...
Scott Lincicome: Tariffs and foreign investment bring in trillions to U.S.
Scott Lincicome points out that the United States is collecting trillions from tariffs and tariff-fueled foreign investment. He references these financial inflows with a tongue-in-cheek remark, ...
World exports surge in 2025 as U.S. trade deficit sets a new record, Scott Lincicome notes
Scott Lincicome highlights that in 2025, world exports experienced significant growth. According to Lincicome, the U.S. share of world exports and imports declined during this period while the ...
Scott Lincicome: Treasury market volatility and Fed rate outlook may increase borrowing costs for Americans
Scott Lincicome highlights concerns about recent turbulence in the U.S. Treasury market and the potential impact of Federal Reserve interest rate increases. According to Lincicome, these factors ...
Global bond selloff drives yields to 2008 highs, Scott Lincicome notes
Scott Lincicome highlights that a global bond selloff has pushed yields to their highest levels since 2008. This surge signals increased investor concerns and changing dynamics in international ...
