Global Macro and Markets by Jurrien Timmer
Jurrien Timmer is Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, where he leads thematic investment research for both traditional and digital markets. His published notes on Bitcoin’s valuation models and adoption curves are distributed to more than 120 institutional clients, including pension managers and family offices with collective assets exceeding $150 billion.
In Q2 2025, Timmer authored a comparative analysis of ETF-driven Bitcoin inflows, highlighting relative strength indicators and risk-adjusted return ratios. The memo was cited in Fidelity’s crypto investment roundtable and informed portfolio shifts among three endowment clients. He also delivered 23 live presentations this quarter, addressing asset-liability strategies that include ETH, SOL, and tokenized treasuries.
Timmer remains a leading translator of macroeconomic signals into digital asset allocations, supporting the bridge between institutional capital and programmable markets.
REITs replace gold as top performer, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer highlights a shift in market trends by noting that REITs have become the new leaders on the leaderboard. Timmer draws a parallel to gold in 2025, referencing how gold was ...
Jurrien Timmer: Mag 7 payout ratio falls to 37 percent as index drifts sideways
Jurrien Timmer highlights that the payout ratio for the so-called Mag 7 has declined to 37 percent. In addition, the Mag 7 index has been moving sideways since October 2025 and its relative price ...
Semiconductor ETF inflows stand out as trend may reverse, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer observes that recent flows into U.S. and KOSPI-listed semiconductor ETFs have been significant. According to Timmer, this surge in investment activity is noteworthy, and he suggests ...
Jurrien Timmer: S&P 500 tech sector valuations now below 2000 peak
Jurrien Timmer highlights that while the current price movement of the S&P 500 index closely resembles its pattern from 1999, the market's fundamentals appear much stronger today. He points out ...
Share count climbs and buybacks drop, Jurrien Timmer observes
Jurrien Timmer highlights that the era of corporate buybacks, which began in the mid-2000s and played a significant role in the secular bull market since 2009, may be ending. He notes that since ...
Jurrien Timmer: Earnings season to feature 23 percent growth estimate for Q2
Jurrien Timmer highlights that the main focus this week will be earnings season. The growth estimate for the second quarter stands at 23 percent, which he describes as a challenging target for ...
Bitcoin approaches $60k power law support, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer suggests that Bitcoin could be entering an accumulation zone. He points out that at $60,000, Bitcoin is moving closer to its power law support ...
Jurrien Timmer: Semiconductor stocks face questions over cyclical versus secular growth in AI era
Jurrien Timmer raises questions about the role of semiconductor stocks in the current artificial intelligence boom. He suggests that investors should consider whether these companies are riding a ...
Market rally broadens beyond Mag 7, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer observes that the U.S. market has shown notable improvement in recent weeks. According to Timmer, the performance has broadened as major technology stocks—the so-called Mag ...
Jurrien Timmer: Gold trades 13 percent below liquidity-based fair value
Jurrien Timmer observes that gold experienced a significant boom, pushing its price well above its liquidity-based fair value. He now sees gold trading at a 13 percent discount relative to where ...
Earnings are surging ahead of second quarter results, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer highlights that earnings across the broader market are booming. He observes that the second quarter earnings season will begin in a few weeks, offering insights into the strength of ...
Jurrien Timmer: AI stocks face pressure over ROI and capex concerns
Jurrien Timmer observes that artificial intelligence stocks experienced pressure last week as doubts grew concerning return on investment from extensive capital expenditures and the potential ...
Semiconductors trade at 20x forward earnings, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer highlights ongoing strength in both semiconductor and Mag7 stocks, emphasizing that their valuations remain reasonable. According to Timmer, the semiconductor group is currently ...
Jurrien Timmer: Gold becomes more correlated to stocks and bonds
Jurrien Timmer observes that commodities and CTAs have continued to perform well as diversifiers. However, Timmer notes that gold has recently shown a higher correlation with both stocks and ...
Gold and Bitcoin hit bottom together, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer observes that last Friday's liquidations impacted both gold and Bitcoin, leaving the two assets at the bottom of what he calls the periodic table. His statement points to a ...
Jurrien Timmer: Forward contract stays high as Iran conflict drags on
Jurrien Timmer observes that when the conflict in Iran began in late February, it was widely expected to be short-lived. Four months later, he notes that the 12-month forward contract remains near ...
AI drives market gains while ex-AI lags, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer highlights the significant difference in market performance between AI-related stocks and other sectors. He observes that when excluding AI-driven companies, the broader market has ...
Jurrien Timmer: Strong U.S. jobs data and Iran conflict keep inflation elevated
Jurrien Timmer notes that last week's strong momentum in markets was quickly reversed on Friday following the release of robust U.S. jobs data, which signaled that the U.S. economy remains hot. ...
Buybacks and dividends decline amid capex surge, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer observes that while buybacks remain a key aspect of financial engineering, a surge in capital expenditures is putting downward pressure on buybacks and dividends when measured as a ...
Jurrien Timmer: Earnings and margins impact on valuation metrics
Jurrien Timmer discusses how the interplay between earnings, margins, rates, and spreads can affect widely used valuation metrics such as the CAPE ratio and the so-called Buffet Indicator. ...
Rising bond yields can pressure equities, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer discusses the relationship between stocks and bonds as described by the Fed Model. According to Timmer, when stocks and bonds are correlated and offer similar yields, changes in ...
