Global Macro and Markets by Jurrien Timmer
Jurrien Timmer is Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, where he leads thematic investment research for both traditional and digital markets. His published notes on Bitcoin’s valuation models and adoption curves are distributed to more than 120 institutional clients, including pension managers and family offices with collective assets exceeding $150 billion.
In Q2 2025, Timmer authored a comparative analysis of ETF-driven Bitcoin inflows, highlighting relative strength indicators and risk-adjusted return ratios. The memo was cited in Fidelity’s crypto investment roundtable and informed portfolio shifts among three endowment clients. He also delivered 23 live presentations this quarter, addressing asset-liability strategies that include ETH, SOL, and tokenized treasuries.
Timmer remains a leading translator of macroeconomic signals into digital asset allocations, supporting the bridge between institutional capital and programmable markets.
Jurrien Timmer: Questions whether bull market “melt-up” phase ended in early June
Jurrien Timmer expressed uncertainty over whether the "melt-up" phase of the current bull market, ongoing since April 2025, may have ended in early June. Timmer added that he is giving the ...
High yield spreads are catching up to the equity P/E-multiple, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer commented that tightening financial conditions can be attributed not only to real rates but also to factors such as the dollar and credit spreads. Timmer added that it is notable ...
Jurrien Timmer: S&P 500 nominal price up 113% since October 2022, real gains lag
The S&P 500 nominal price index has increased by 113% since its low in October 2022, with total return up 127% and the inflation-adjusted index gaining 93%. Jurrien Timmer reported that the ...
Bull market started after October 2022 reset, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer stated that the current cyclical bull market began four years ago on October 13, 2022, following a significant reset in the cost of capital. He attributed this reset to the ...
Jurrien Timmer: Investment clock shifts to tighter financial conditions
Jurrien Timmer observes a shift in his investment clock from the 9-12 o’clock quadrant, where rising earnings are amplified by easy financial conditions, to the 12-3 o’clock quadrant, where ...
Forward and equal-weighted P/E ratios remain subdued, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer highlights that the forward cap-weighted price-to-earnings ratio stands at 19.7x, with the equal-weighted index even lower at 17.3x. Timmer argues that current market conditions ...
Jurrien Timmer: Fed faces challenge as markets demand rate hikes and borrowers feel impact
Jurrien Timmer highlights that the Federal Reserve is facing a difficult situation as markets are calling for interest rate hikes. He notes that while the government can manage rising rates by ...
Trailing EPS grows 30 percent and margins reach record, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer observes that trailing earnings per share are up 30 percent from a year ago and that the next 12-month estimate is expected to increase another 20 percent. He points out that ...
Jurrien Timmer: Market dynamics shaped by earnings boom and higher capital costs
Jurrien Timmer observes that financial markets are currently being influenced by two competing forces. On one side, a significant earnings boom is driving momentum, while on the other, a rise in ...
TIPS set to outperform nominals over holding period, Jurrien Timmer assesses
Jurrien Timmer assesses the relative performance of TIPS and nominal bonds, concluding that TIPS will outperform nominals if held to maturity. In this brief analysis, Timmer acknowledges the ...
Jurrien Timmer: Commodities, gold, Bitcoin seen as key diversifiers alongside equities and bonds
Jurrien Timmer identifies main portfolio diversifiers beyond traditional asset classes. According to Timmer, in addition to the 60 percent allocation to global equities and 20 percent to bonds, ...
10-year yield jumps to 5.25%, Jurrien Timmer points out
Jurrien Timmer highlights ongoing activity in the rates market, noting that the 10-year yield reached 5.25% on Friday while the real yield rose to 2.82%. Timmer draws attention to the real rate ...
Jurrien Timmer: S&P 500 loses momentum after four months of trading range
Jurrien Timmer highlights that the market has lost considerable momentum in just a few weeks. Timmer points out that the cap-weighted S&P 500 has been stuck in a trading range for four months, ...
Bitcoin price prediction: Power law math suggests bull market targeting $300k in 2029, Jurrien Timmer predicts
Jurrien Timmer suggests that Bitcoin's current price action aligns with the cryptocurrency entering a new cyclical bull market. According to Timmer, Bitcoin holding the $60,000 level supports a ...
Jurrien Timmer: Bitcoin and commodities lead diversified portfolios
Jurrien Timmer highlights the performance of a diversified 60/20/20 investment model, noting current leadership by Bitcoin and commodities. According to Timmer, the so-called Magnificent 7 ...
S&P 500 continues to track 1998-2000 price pattern, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer observes that the S&P 500 continues to follow a price pattern similar to the period from 1998 to 2000. He suggests that the current semiconductor cycle, along with the possibility ...
Jurrien Timmer: S&P 500 breaks out as market breadth hits 74 percent
Jurrien Timmer highlights that the S&P 500 Index has broken out of its previous trading range. According to Timmer, market breadth has reached an impressive 74 percent, and the equal-weighted ...
Gold trades around $4,000 while money supply grows, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer observes that gold has been confined to a range close to $4,000 throughout the year. He highlights that while the metal could potentially dip below this level based on current ...
Jurrien Timmer: 5-year CAPE ratio remains near all-time highs set in 1929, 2000 and 2021
Jurrien Timmer highlights that the 5-year CAPE ratio is still near its all-time highs, levels previously recorded in 1929, 2000 and 2021. Timmer attributes this historically elevated multiple to ...
Speculators stay in AI and semiconductor sectors, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer observes that, despite a recent downturn in AI momentum and the semiconductor sector, speculators have not exited these markets as some might have anticipated. Timmer highlights ...
Jurrien Timmer: Market cycle driven by strong earnings and robust economy
Jurrien Timmer emphasizes that the current market cycle is characterized by outsized total returns fueled by strong earnings growth, improving margins, tight credit spreads, and overall economic ...
