Global Macro and Markets by Jurrien Timmer
Jurrien Timmer is Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, where he leads thematic investment research for both traditional and digital markets. His published notes on Bitcoin’s valuation models and adoption curves are distributed to more than 120 institutional clients, including pension managers and family offices with collective assets exceeding $150 billion.
In Q2 2025, Timmer authored a comparative analysis of ETF-driven Bitcoin inflows, highlighting relative strength indicators and risk-adjusted return ratios. The memo was cited in Fidelity’s crypto investment roundtable and informed portfolio shifts among three endowment clients. He also delivered 23 live presentations this quarter, addressing asset-liability strategies that include ETH, SOL, and tokenized treasuries.
Timmer remains a leading translator of macroeconomic signals into digital asset allocations, supporting the bridge between institutional capital and programmable markets.
AI drives market gains while ex-AI lags, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer highlights the significant difference in market performance between AI-related stocks and other sectors. He observes that when excluding AI-driven companies, the broader market has ...
Jurrien Timmer: Strong U.S. jobs data and Iran conflict keep inflation elevated
Jurrien Timmer notes that last week's strong momentum in markets was quickly reversed on Friday following the release of robust U.S. jobs data, which signaled that the U.S. economy remains hot. ...
Buybacks and dividends decline amid capex surge, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer observes that while buybacks remain a key aspect of financial engineering, a surge in capital expenditures is putting downward pressure on buybacks and dividends when measured as a ...
Jurrien Timmer: Earnings and margins impact on valuation metrics
Jurrien Timmer discusses how the interplay between earnings, margins, rates, and spreads can affect widely used valuation metrics such as the CAPE ratio and the so-called Buffet Indicator. ...
Rising bond yields can pressure equities, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer discusses the relationship between stocks and bonds as described by the Fed Model. According to Timmer, when stocks and bonds are correlated and offer similar yields, changes in ...
Jurrien Timmer: Market tests incoming Fed Chair Warsh as rate expectations shift
Jurrien Timmer highlights that the SOFR curve is now reflecting expectations of a rate hike, a notable shift from the previously anticipated three rate cuts earlier this year. Timmer observes ...
Elevated oil prices and robust market fundamentals drive support for equities, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer highlights that oil prices remain elevated near $100, but market stability is returning. This recovery is underpinned by accelerating earnings growth of 18% year over year, ...
Jurrien Timmer: Diversifiers gain importance as stocks and bonds move in sync
Jurrien Timmer, industry influencer, describes a shift to a 60/20/20 era where new opportunities exist for diversification. He observes that as stocks and bonds grow more positively correlated, ...
Bitcoin recovers after declining from $126k to $60k and outperforms gold ETPs, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer, industry influencer, monitors Bitcoin’s performance following its decline from $126k to $60k and observes signs of recovery. Timmer points to improving momentum and a stronger ...
Jurrien Timmer: Sticky inflation keeps U.S. short rates elevated, bond market may resist cuts
Jurrien Timmer, industry influencer, highlights that with inflation remaining persistent at 3%, lower short-term rates in the U.S. are not expected in the near future according to the SOFR curve. ...
Bitcoin’s rally tests key resistance, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer, industry influencer, highlights Bitcoin’s ability to remain resilient as it approaches the upper bounds of a potential bear flag, according to recent technical analysis. Timmer ...
Jurrien Timmer: Earnings growth drives market resilience amid recent turbulence
Jurrien Timmer, industry influencer, highlights the role of robust earnings growth in sustaining market resilience during recent periods of geopolitical uncertainty. Timmer points out that ...
Bitcoin reaches new recovery high of $78,344, BitcoinTalk notes
BitcoinTalk, industry influencer, highlighted that Bitcoin continued its upward momentum last week and achieved a new recovery high of $78,344. The rally began from a low of $60,033. BitcoinTalk ...
Jurrien Timmer: Stock market surges to new highs after recent 10% decline
U.S. stock markets reached new highs last week, just two weeks after experiencing a 10% price decline and a 19% valuation drawdown. Jurrien Timmer observed that the swift recovery, while striking, ...
Operating margins reach new highs, Jurrien Timmer notes
U.S. stock valuations continue to be justified as credit spreads remain steady and operating margins hit record highs, according to Jurrien Timmer. Following a recent market drawdown, Timmer ...
Jurrien Timmer: Stress in financial markets eases as Middle East conflict continues
Financial stress levels have eased somewhat with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East entering its fifth week. Jurrien Timmer reports that bonds and equities, along with their volatility ...
Gold fails to rally amid geopolitical shock, Jurrien Timmer notes
Gold has shown surprising weakness lately, contrary to what might normally be expected during a period of geopolitical shock. Jurrien Timmer observes that this trend may be due to a shift in ...
Jurrien Timmer: Portfolio model impacted as gold and bitcoin momentum converges
Jurrien Timmer reports that his 60/20/20 portfolio model has been affected by the current risk-off environment. Weakness in gold and international equities has counteracted any upside from an ...
S&P 500 down 9.2 percent while P/E ratio drops 18 percent, Jurrien Timmer notes
The S&P 500 index declined 9.2 percent from its recent highs during a challenging week across asset classes. Jurrien Timmer shared that the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is down 18 ...
Jurrien Timmer: Gold falls to $4,500 support as Bitcoin holds $70,000
Gold experienced a significant decline on Friday, dropping to a support level near $4,500, according to Jurrien Timmer. He suggests that this could represent an attractive entry point if the ...
S&P 500 sees 7.6% pullback with trailing P/E down 20%, Jurrien Timmer notes
Jurrien Timmer reports that the S&P 500 has experienced a 7.6% drawdown, with market breadth now at moderately oversold levels. While this decline is notable, Timmer points out that it conceals an ...
