Venture capital, technology, and investing insights by Tren Griffin
Tren Griffin: Charlie Munger describes risks for long-term shareholders facing 50 percent declines
Charlie Munger stated that long-term shareholders must accept that the value of their stock can decline by as much as 50 percent due to normal market fluctuations. Tren Griffin shared this ...
One to three companies drive most portfolio returns, Tren Griffin notes
Tren Griffin stated that venture capital firms expect the financial returns across all their portfolio companies to follow a power law distribution, where one to three companies typically account ...
Tren Griffin: Anthropic reports $80.7 billion net loss for first half of 2026
Anthropic disclosed a $80.7 billion net loss for the first half of 2026. Tren Griffin highlighted this figure and commented that risk factors differ between Anthropic and ...
Jesse Livermore lost reported $100 million windfall within four years, Tren Griffin notes
Jesse Livermore reportedly earned $100 million by shorting the market during the 1929 crash but lost all of it over the following four years. Tren Griffin used Livermore's experience as an ...
Tren Griffin: Margin loans can lead to loss of control and potential ruin
Tren Griffin highlights that investors using margin loans may lose control over their assets during market corrections if they are unable to provide additional collateral. Griffin warns that ...
Venture capital requires many bets to avoid risk of ruin, Tren Griffin notes
Tren Griffin examines the mindset of venture capitalists, noting that while investors may believe in the potential of each bet, outcomes typically follow a power law distribution. He points out ...
Tren Griffin: Oura ring IPO paused amid market concerns
Tren Griffin shares an overheard comment about the Oura ring company delaying its initial public offering. According to the observation, the IPO is taking a short pause as the company awaits a ...
WorldCom fraud set false expectations in telecom market, Tren Griffin notes
Tren Griffin describes the telecom bubble as beginning when WorldCom acquired MFS Communications for $14 billion in August 1996. He states it ended in spring of 2021, when the bond market ...
Tren Griffin: 86 stocks generated $16 trillion in wealth over 90 years
Tren Griffin reports that just 86 stocks have contributed to $16 trillion in wealth creation, representing half of the total value generated by the stock market over the past 90 years. He adds ...
Bond market halted telecom boom, Tren Griffin notes
Tren Griffin recalls the end of the telecom bubble, describing how the bond market abruptly halted further expansion by refusing to provide funding, likening it to Roberto Duran’s famous 'no ...
Tren Griffin: SpaceX rocket launch margins are strong but market revenues are lower than broadband
Tren Griffin highlights the concept of margin as the difference between revenue and costs, expressed as a percentage. He states that SpaceX achieves robust margins in its Falcon 9 rocket launch ...
Starlink pays close to $15 million per Falcon 9 launch, Tren Griffin notes
Tren Griffin compares the costs associated with Falcon 9 rocket launches for Starlink and third parties. According to Griffin, Starlink pays roughly $15 million in cost of goods sold (COGs) for ...
Tren Griffin: Sustained high returns signal a business moat
Tren Griffin explains that a business demonstrating returns on capital significantly above the opportunity cost of capital for more than five years has established a moat. The determination, ...
Investment choices depend on comparing opportunities, Tren Griffin notes
Tren Griffin shares insights on investment strategy, quoting Charlie Munger on the importance of comparing various opportunities before choosing to invest in the most attractive ones. Griffin's ...
Tren Griffin: Citadel completed nearly 100 block trades totaling $4 billion
Tren Griffin reports that Citadel has completed nearly 100 block trades, amounting to $4 billion in market value as part of its strategy to trim portfolio risk. The tweet clarifies that the ...
Citadel acquires SA in bulk sale linked to flex options, Tren Griffin notes
Tren Griffin raises questions around Citadel's bulk acquisition of SA and its connection to a flex options trade focused on AI. According to Griffin, a customized derivative known as 'flex ...
Tren Griffin: Flex options used to amplify situational awareness AI trade
Tren Griffin highlights how situational awareness involved the purchase of 'flex options,' which are customized derivatives designed to amplify an artificial intelligence trade. He explains that ...
Berkshire Hathaway owns significant U.S. Treasury holdings, Tren Griffin notes
Tren Griffin reports that Berkshire Hathaway holds approximately 5 percent of the U.S. Treasury Bill market and around 0.8 to 0.9 percent of the total U.S. Treasury market overall. This ...
Tren Griffin: No blurred line between investing and gambling activities
Tren Griffin draws a clear distinction between investing and gambling, stating that investing is a net-present-value (NPV) positive activity, while gambling is NPV negative. He emphasizes there ...
Debate over Kelly criterion in investing continues, Tren Griffin discusses
Tren Griffin raises questions about the lack of discussion surrounding the Kelly criterion among investors. He challenges the idea that taking excessive risks, such as "YOLO with leverage," leads ...
Tren Griffin: Jim Simons avoided major risk while Victor Niederhoffer lost all investor money
Tren Griffin draws a contrast between the approaches of Jim Simons and Victor Niederhoffer, noting that Simons never risked everything and was careful to play defense. In contrast, Griffin ...
