U.S. solopreneurs expand in AI-exposed sectors

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US solopreneurs in AI sectors

Highlights

From Q1 2024 to Q1 2026, business applications in AI-exposed industries without early hiring indicators rise 26.8%, reaching 281,000 per quarter.
Applications with signs of eventually becoming employer firms in these sectors fall 6.4% over the same period, signaling a shift toward solopreneurship.
AI tools enable solopreneurs like Kristin Ginn to generate $250,000 and Alex Willen’s brands to reach $2.5–$3 million annually without employees, reshaping firm size dynamics.

Business formation trends in AI-exposed industries

As reported by CNBC, recent research shows applications from prospective owners without early signs of hiring are rising in industries highly exposed to AI. Liya Palagashvili, a labor economist and director of the Labor Policy Project at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center, says new business formation is increasing alongside applications that are unlikely to become employer firms.

From the first quarter of 2024 through the first quarter of 2026, business applications in those AI-exposed industries without early indications of hiring rise 26.8%, from about 222,000 to 281,000 per quarter. Over the same period, applications in the same industries with stronger signs of eventually becoming employer businesses fall 6.4%.

Palagashvili says AI is putting capabilities that once sat inside larger organizations directly into the hands of individuals. That is allowing founders to launch and scale businesses with a cost structure that does not depend on adding staff early on.

Revenue growth and market implications

Founders cited in the report say AI tools from OpenAI and Anthropic are helping handle bookkeeping, proposals, pricing, advertising, design, customer service and inventory tasks. Kristin Ginn, who leaves Microsoft earlier in 2026 to start AI-adoption consultancy trnsfrmAItn, says she uses AI across strategy and client work and is exploring an AI agent to take over part of a labor-intensive process.

Ginn says that seven months after launch, she has about $250,000 in business received or contracted through year-end with no employees or regular contractors. Alex Willen expects the 12 e-commerce brands he operates without employees to generate between $2.5 million and $3 million this year, and says AI helped turn Lone Trail’s Shopify channel from roughly 1% of sales to about 30% of revenue in a recent 30-day period.

Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson says the technology is extending the reach of small producers, but he also expects it to strengthen the biggest platform companies. He says AI is likely to support thriving solopreneurs while also contributing to a hollowing out of midsize firms, leaving very small teams and very large organizations better positioned than companies in the middle.

Our earlier article on a KPMG U.S. survey of CEOs looked at how AI agents are delivering early efficiency and growth gains, even as only a small share of leaders consider them truly transformational so far. It also noted that many executives expect AI to drive continued hiring, retraining, and sizable investment in AI infrastructure as companies adapt processes and roles to human-AI collaboration.

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