Soybeans price forecast: $1,100 support as ZS trades flat

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Soybeans dip 0.21% to $1,125 today

Highlights

U.S. farmers will gain access to Iranian export markets, boosting potential demand and liquidity for American soybeans.
This market opening may shift global trade flows and increase longer-term export competition among major agricultural producers.
Technical indicators show strong near-term bullish momentum with expected price consolidation between $1,100 and $1,150 for the next 2–3 days.

New Iranian market access as U.S. export sentiment improves

Donald Trump has announced that American farmers will soon be able to export soybeans and other crops to Iran, opening a new export channel for U.S. agricultural products, according to Independent Co. This development represents a concrete expansion of market access for U.S. soybeans, potentially increasing future demand and liquidity for American producers. The opening of Iranian markets is expected to alter international trade flows and may have longer-term implications for supply and export competition, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bullish signals face intraday weakness as technicals diverge

On the technical front, ZS/USD trades above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the H4 chart, while remaining below the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance is noted at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $1,132. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX) both produce Buy or Strong Buy signals, reflecting bullish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic RSI also indicate buying conditions. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is neutral, and Bull/Bear Power points to an overbought intraday state with buyers in control. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not confirm the prevailing trend. Price currently sits near the daily low after gapping lower and experiencing moderate volatility, highlighting a divergence between intraday weakness and generally bullish technical signals.

High upside probability as resistance level becomes pivotal

Looking ahead to the next 2–3 days, ZS/USD is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band of $1,100 to $1,150. The probability of an upward move is assessed as very high, particularly if the price can clear resistance at $1,132, setting up a test of the upper boundary. A break below $1,100 support would open the door for additional short-term downside pressure, but this is considered a less likely scenario given current technical tailwinds.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the Trump administration’s move to secure Iranian export access as an important macro and fundamental shift for the U.S. soybean market. He notes that while price action is still subdued, technical indicators now tilt bullish and market sentiment could turn rapidly if volume increases. The analyst believes consolidation above key averages, combined with fresh export potential, raises confidence in the near-term outlook. 'With new market access and buyers regaining control, I expect $1,132 resistance to come under pressure soon.'

Previously it was reported that mixed technical momentum and geopolitical uncertainties were limiting bullish progress for soybeans. The newly opened export channel to Iran introduces a fresh demand driver that could alter market dynamics, making resistance near $1,132 a critical level for traders monitoring a potential shift in the prevailing trend.

Source of Data: ZS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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